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  1. <P style="TEXT-ALIGN: left; MARGIN: 3.75pt 0cm; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" class=MsoNormal align=left><B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #e53333; FONT-SIZE: 18pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">汤铭金:金价走势的分析方法简述</SPAN></B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt" lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN><B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 18pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">  </SPAN></B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt" lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN><B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 18pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">  <SPAN style="COLOR: #e56600">对黄金白银的走势分析可以通过基本面分析和技术面分析两种方法实现。</SPAN></SPAN></B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt" lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN><B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 18pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">  </SPAN></B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt" lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN><B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 18pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">  基本面分析,指基于经济学,金融学,财务管理学以及投资学等基本原理,通过对影响价格的宏观经济指标,美元指数,地缘政治,供给需求变动,黄金白银<SPAN lang=EN-US>ETF</SPAN>持仓量的变化等基本因素的分析来判断行情走势。</SPAN></B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt" lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN><B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 18pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">  </SPAN></B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt" lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN><B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 18pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">  <SPAN style="COLOR: #e53333">基本面分析的优点</SPAN>是能够比较准确的把握行情的基本走势,只要能够做到简单明了,分清主次,就能够比较准确的把握中长线的大趋势。基本面分析属于战略分析,但是不能量化消息,给出具体的买卖信号。此外,基本面比较稳定,在一段时间内相对静止,从而形成一种稳定的趋势。</SPAN></B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt" lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN><B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 18pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">  </SPAN></B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt" lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN><B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 18pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">  <SPAN style="COLOR: #e53333">基本面分析的缺点:</SPAN></SPAN></B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt" lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN><B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 18pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">  </SPAN></B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt" lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN><B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 18pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">  <SPAN style="COLOR: #e56600">数据误差<SPAN lang=EN-US>:</SPAN></SPAN></SPAN></B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt" lang=EN-US><?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P> <P style="TEXT-ALIGN: left; MARGIN: 3.75pt 0cm; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" class=MsoNormal align=left><B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #e56600; FONT-SIZE: 18pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt" lang=EN-US>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </SPAN></B><B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 18pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">基本数据的误差会导致预测上的误差,无论基本面数据来源于政府部门还是私人部门都存在一定误差,因此基本面分析预测的精确度相对较低。</SPAN></B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt" lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN><B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 18pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">  </SPAN></B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt" lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN><B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 18pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">  <SPAN style="COLOR: #e56600">消息的滞后性<SPAN lang=EN-US>:</SPAN></SPAN></SPAN></B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P> <P style="TEXT-ALIGN: left; MARGIN: 3.75pt 0cm; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" class=MsoNormal align=left><B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #e56600; FONT-SIZE: 18pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt" lang=EN-US>&nbsp;&nbsp; </SPAN></B><B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 18pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">由于市场的有效性欠缺,大多数投资者在得知基本面消息时,市场已经开始消化该消息,投资者的投资行为往往会有一定的滞后性。</SPAN></B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt" lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN><B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 18pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">  </SPAN></B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt" lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN><B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 18pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">  基本面分析预测的时间跨度相对较长,对短线投资者的指导作用比较弱。</SPAN></B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt" lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN><B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 18pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">  </SPAN></B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt" lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN><B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 18pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">  <SPAN style="COLOR: #e53333">基本面分析基本可以从以下几个方面进行:</SPAN></SPAN></B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt" lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN><B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 18pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">  </SPAN></B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt" lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN><B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 18pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">  黄金白银的供给需求关系,美元指数及国际汇率,地缘政治,重要经济指标,头寸变化,机构评级,通货膨胀,国家货币,经济政策。</SPAN></B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt" lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN><B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 18pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">  </SPAN></B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt" lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN><B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 18pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">  技术分析是相对基本面而言,指的是利用市场交易资料以及相关信息,借助图标或技术指标,应用数学和逻辑的方法,研究市场过去及现在的行为反应,总结一些典型规律,对整个市场价格走势进行预测和判断。</SPAN></B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt" lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN><B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 18pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">  </SPAN></B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt" lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN><B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 18pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">  <SPAN style="COLOR: #e53333">技术分析的优点:</SPAN></SPAN></B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt" lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN><B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 18pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">  </SPAN></B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt" lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN><B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 18pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">  技术分析是一套自成系统且可操作的分析方法。技术分析指出黄金的价格走势是有规律可循的,并提出了把握规律的一套方法。这套方法对价格的历史走势有很强的解释力,对预测未来也有一定的参考价值。</SPAN></B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt" lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN><B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 18pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">  </SPAN></B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt" lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN><B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 18pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">  技术分析的分析对象简单直观,有一定模式可循,有具体形象可以参考,运用灵活多变。</SPAN></B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt" lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN><B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 18pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">  </SPAN></B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt" lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN><B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 18pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">  技术分析图上的交易信号比较客观,不会因为投资者的主观意愿而改变,保持理性分析及中立态度。</SPAN></B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt" lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN><B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 18pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">  </SPAN></B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt" lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN><B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 18pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">  <SPAN style="COLOR: #e53333">技术分析的不足:</SPAN></SPAN></B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt" lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN><B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 18pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">  </SPAN></B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt" lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN><B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 18pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">  技术分析忽视了基本因素的决定性因素,没有从根本上把握价格的运动规律。</SPAN></B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt" lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN><B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 18pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">  </SPAN></B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt" lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN><B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 18pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">  技术分析结论的有效性主要基于投资者的心理在相似的环境下做出的相同反应。当黄金价格的趋势可能发生重大变化的时候,各种因素作用下的市场心理也可能发生重大变化,这个时候普通的技术分析往往不能得到结论,甚至与事实背道而驰。</SPAN></B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt" lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN><B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 18pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">  </SPAN></B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt" lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN><B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 18pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">  技术分析对极其复杂多变的黄金价格分析和研判过于简单化和机械化,得出的结论往往具有片面性和武断性。</SPAN></B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt" lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN><B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 18pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">  </SPAN></B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt" lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN><B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 18pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">  进行技术面分析,可以从形态理论,趋势理论,指标理论等方面入手</SPAN></B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt" lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN><B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 18pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">  <SPAN style="COLOR: #e53333">例如形态理论包括头肩顶,头肩底,双重底(顶),三重底(顶),<SPAN lang=EN-US>V</SPAN>型形态,三角收敛形态,黄昏之星,早晨之星等;</SPAN>趋势理论包括趋势通道,趋势线分析,扇形原理,黄金分割等;指标理论包括<SPAN lang=EN-US>KDJ</SPAN>,<SPAN lang=EN-US>RSI</SPAN>,<SPAN lang=EN-US>MACD</SPAN>,<SPAN lang=EN-US>##I</SPAN>,布林带,平均趋势线等。此外,投资者还可以通过道氏理论,波浪理论,江恩理论等方法对黄金价格走势进行分析。</SPAN></B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt" lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN><B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 18pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">  基本面以及技术面,把握这两点,铭金相信大家一定可以在现货黄金市场或是其他投资市场有一番作为,有兴趣与铭金相互学习交流的可以联系本人,铭金祝大家情人元宵双节日快乐。</SPAN></B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt" lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN><B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 18pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">  <SPAN style="COLOR: #e53333">最后昨天的问题,答案是长颈鹿没有去,因为第一个题目里他被关在冰箱里的,肯定有朋友说,这是一个坑,题目没有说两个题目是有联系的,是的,确实是坑,但是交易市场这样的坑很多,这个小题目也告诉我们要随时保持清醒的头脑,学会总结以前的数</SPAN></SPAN></B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt" lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P> <P style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt" class=MsoNormal><STRONG><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #e53333; FONT-SIZE: 18pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">据,走势,不要顾此失彼。铭金祝你们成功,马年马上有一切。</SPAN></STRONG></P>

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