lee88899观点_投资英雄，让交易更简单

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lee88899

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lee88899

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<P>赞！几年来，这里产生的黄金分析师也真不少。不过这些分析师也消失得很快！<BR>究其原因是：这个生产队长不好当！绩效不行。把投资者炒糊了！自然损兵折将啰！<BR>其实炒黄金好像是偷情一样：不允许一天内上上下下4、5次！所以是短命的，是因为元气亏空了（本金亏完了。）</P>

帖子：任何没有依据的行情分析都是猜测

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纯粹误导！

帖子：【阿伦团队10.29】GDP数据，金价回调的终结者还是助推器

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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">止损操作方法是投资者亏损之源。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: black; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">止损操作是最差的资金管理技术。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: black; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">投资者为什么会止损</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: black; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">?</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">说明投资者的资金管理成了问题，资金链可能会断裂。可以说止损操作是是广大散户的专利。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: black; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">相反我们看看和散户进行博弈、操纵股价的庄家，他们有强大的资金做后盾，在操纵股价的过程中从来不会止损，他们任意拉升股价和打压股价，让广大散户不断买进股票，买进后又不断止损卖出。这种操作的结果就是不断的亏损。累加后投资者亏损巨大，相反，庄家就赚的很多。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: black; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 21.6pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">很多短线操作者每次操作后非常有原则地进行</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">2</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">～</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">5</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">美元的止损设置，即在操作后，金价进一步逆向波动</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">2</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">～</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">5</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">美元便认亏止损出局。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 21.6pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">但实际情况是，要在绝大多数时候看准金价不会在你操作后进一步逆向波动</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">2</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">～</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">5</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">美元，那是神仙也办不到的事情。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 21.6pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">故很多时候，这种短线操作总会以止损结束交易。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 21.6pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">唯一获利的是生产队长可以获得更多交易的佣金收益。这种短线交易可能不会让投资者在某一次形成重创，但多次遭遇止损后的投资心理无疑会受到重创。以至于真正的中期机会来临时，心态尚处于惶恐不安的狐疑状态而最终错失最佳的波段上车机会。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>

帖子：点石成金随笔记

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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">止损操作方法是投资者亏损之源。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: black; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">止损操作是最差的资金管理技术。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: black; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">投资者为什么会止损</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: black; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">?</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">说明投资者的资金管理成了问题，资金链可能会断裂。可以说止损操作是是广大散户的专利。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: black; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">相反我们看看和散户进行博弈、操纵股价的庄家，他们有强大的资金做后盾，在操纵股价的过程中从来不会止损，他们任意拉升股价和打压股价，让广大散户不断买进股票，买进后又不断止损卖出。这种操作的结果就是不断的亏损。累加后投资者亏损巨大，相反，庄家就赚的很多。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: black; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 21.6pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">很多短线操作者每次操作后非常有原则地进行</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">2</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">～</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">5</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">美元的止损设置，即在操作后，金价进一步逆向波动</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">2</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">～</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">5</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">美元便认亏止损出局。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 21.6pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">但实际情况是，要在绝大多数时候看准金价不会在你操作后进一步逆向波动</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">2</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">～</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">5</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">美元，那是神仙也办不到的事情。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 21.6pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">故很多时候，这种短线操作总会以止损结束交易。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 21.6pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">唯一获利的是生产队长可以获得更多交易的佣金收益。这种短线交易可能不会让投资者在某一次形成重创，但多次遭遇止损后的投资心理无疑会受到重创。以至于真正的中期机会来临时，心态尚处于惶恐不安的狐疑状态而最终错失最佳的波段上车机会。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>

帖子：黄金迎来新纪元

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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">止损操作方法是投资者亏损之源。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: black; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">止损操作是最差的资金管理技术。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: black; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">投资者为什么会止损</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: black; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">?</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">说明投资者的资金管理成了问题，资金链可能会断裂。可以说止损操作是是广大散户的专利。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: black; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">相反我们看看和散户进行博弈、操纵股价的庄家，他们有强大的资金做后盾，在操纵股价的过程中从来不会止损，他们任意拉升股价和打压股价，让广大散户不断买进股票，买进后又不断止损卖出。这种操作的结果就是不断的亏损。累加后投资者亏损巨大，相反，庄家就赚的很多。<BR></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: black; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 21.6pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana"><BR>很多短线操作者每次操作后非常有原则地进行</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">2</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">～</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">5</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">美元的止损设置，即在操作后，金价进一步逆向波动</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">2</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">～</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">5</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">美元便认亏止损出局。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 21.6pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">但实际情况是，要在绝大多数时候看准金价不会在你操作后进一步逆向波动</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">2</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">～</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">5</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">美元，那是神仙也办不到的事情。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 21.6pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">故很多时候，这种短线操作总会以止损结束交易。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 21.6pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">唯一获利的是生产队长可以获得更多交易的佣金收益。这种短线交易可能不会让投资者在某一次形成重创，但多次遭遇止损后的投资心理无疑会受到重创。以至于真正的中期机会来临时，心态尚处于惶恐不安的狐疑状态而最终错失最佳的波段上车机会。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>

帖子：黄金迎来新纪元

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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><B><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 13.5pt; COLOR: #660000; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">为何短线交易常以失败告终？</SPAN></B><B><SPAN style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">来源：威尔鑫</SPAN></B><B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">  <A href="http://www.kitco.cn/cn/commentary/Wellxin/printerfriendly/2009-09-24.html"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; TEXT-DECORATION: none; text-underline: none"><?xml:namespace prefix = v ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:vml" /><v:shapetype id=_x0000_t75 stroked="f" filled="f" path="m@4@5l@4@11@9@11@9@5xe" o:preferrelative="t" o:spt="75" coordsize="21600,21600"> <v:stroke joinstyle="miter"></v:stroke><v:formulas><v:f eqn="if lineDrawn pixelLineWidth 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @0 1 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum 0 0 @1"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @2 1 2"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelWidth"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelHeight"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @0 0 1"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @6 1 2"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelWidth"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @8 21600 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelHeight"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @10 21600 0"></v:f></v:formulas><v:path o:connecttype="rect" gradientshapeok="t" o:extrusionok="f"></v:path><?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o:lock aspectratio="t" v:ext="edit"></o:lock></v:shapetype><v:shape id=_x0000_i1025 style="WIDTH: 20.25pt; HEIGHT: 17.25pt" o:button="t" alt="打印版" type="#_x0000_t75"><v:imagedata o:href="http://www.kitco.cn/images/printicon.gif" src="file:///C:\DOCUME~1\ADMINI~1\LOCALS~1\Temp\msohtml1\01\clip_image001.gif"></v:imagedata></v:shape></SPAN></A><BR>2009-09-24 14:06:56</SPAN></B><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">周三国际现货金价以</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">1013.5</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">美元开盘，最高上试</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">1018</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">美元，最低下探</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">1005.3</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">美元，报收</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">1007.2</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">美元，较上个交易日下跌</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">6.3</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">美元，跌幅</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">0.62</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">％，日</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">K</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">线呈现一根回吐周三约半涨幅的小阴线。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">周三金价总体呈现窄幅振荡下行态势，但从盘口观察，真正决定日内涨跌的命运是美联储的利率决议及会后声明。美联储一如市场预期般在周三隔夜宣布维持联邦基金利率至</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">0.25</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">％不变，并进一步重申将在较长时期内维持该低利率以刺激经济复苏。单从消息面本身而言，几乎完全在市场意料之中，且消息面的实质性内容是进一步执行宽松的货币政策以促进经济复苏，应该利空美元。但市场主力似乎利用该消息面做了个短线，即在周二打压美元，对该消息面提前消化，使得短期美元明显超跌。在周三隔夜公布如所预期利空美元的消息时，反而利用该消息面兑现短线获利，故美元在利率决议公布后呈现先抑后扬走势。该走势对应反应在黄金市场，使得金价快速上试</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">1018</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">美元后再度转而下行至</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">1006</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">美元附近，对应美股也呈现类似走势。故周三该消息面对市场的影响是明显的，尽管该消息面对市场影响的预期可能与大多市场人士的理解相反。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">故如果从短线交易的理解来看，主力利用巧妙利用消息面赚到了钱。而一般追随消息面或短期技术面的普通投资者肯定会亏钱。但就中期趋势来看，周三美元逆消息面的走势以及对关联市场的指引肯定也是短期行为，故笔者秉持对阶段性美元趋弱的观点不变。但本期日评笔者要进一步剖析大众短线交易的失败心历。从周三的市场走势可以看出，市场主力即便做些调整性的短线，那也会有执行短线战术的战略构思，即怎么充分利用大多投资人对市场短期理解来进行对应的短线交易。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">可以说主力的短线交易绝大多数是反消息面、反技术操作。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">但与此对应的是普通投资人则是跟随消息面的</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">“</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">应该</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">”</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">指引，或跟随超短期技术面发出的买卖信号进行</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">“</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">听话</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">”</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">的交易。结果往往是消息面的</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">“</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">应该</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">”</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">变成</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">“</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">事与愿违</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">”</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">，参考教科书模式的超短期技术面指引变成精准的反向操作。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">当然，笔者并非全盘否定短线交易，但可以肯定的是</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">99</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">％的短线投机者都会以失败告终。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">这些失败者的共性是参与市场的时间不长，不少是教科书的理论信奉者，</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">“</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">金叉买进，死叉卖出</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">”</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">是教科书给的进出信号。但如果对照以往实际的历史走势，投资人可以看看</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 黑体; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">这种金叉买进与死叉卖出最终结果的正确率是多少，应该不到<SPAN lang=EN-US>50</SPAN>％</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">。因为金价大多时候处于区间盘整的运行时间较多，在区间盘整期间，当技术指标发出金叉时，短期金价往往已经有些超买了。当技术指标发出死叉时，短期金价又往往有些超卖了。结果很多据此操作的投资人最终发现，根据指示操作后，金价仅仅稍做短期停顿就掉头。故很多时候的短线操作形成</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">“</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">精确反向</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">”</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">。所以笔者以为根据这样指示来进行操作，正确率肯定低于</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">50</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">％。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 黑体; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">而一般传统的基础类技术教科书，它们对市场的理解可以说大多是无效的，投资人据此捧为希望决胜市场的圣经肯定是个错误。<SPAN lang=EN-US> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">那剩下</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">1</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">％可以获胜的短线投机者一定经历了市场充分洗礼，且我敢打赌，他们对技术指标的理解绝对不是教科书般的理解。应该是这样一种理解：他们认为技术指标在大多时候都是无效的，但某些指标在某些特定的交易时段出现较特殊信号时，交易机会可能出现了。即他们只会去抓指标出现特殊情况时的交易机会，并不是每时每刻都在盯着技术指标分析交易机会是否出现了。而失败的短线投资者则常常这样，每天盯着大多时候无用的指标磨脑袋。此外，对一个成功的短线投资者而言，你自己总结的特殊交易机会，你要学会用历史走势去测试它的正确率，这需要投资人懂些指标编程就可实现。那些每天都在分钟</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">K</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">线形态上给投资人提供短线交易机会的人，我敢肯定绝对不是短线交易的成功者。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">笔者自认为对技术面钻研不浅，任何自己想要的技术指标，或对特殊</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">K</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">线形态的组合捕捉，都可以通过编程来自动实现。但钻研越深，你会发现技术分析在很多时候无能为力，特别是对短线的无能为力。对于技术指标在各个市场的运用，笔者有些心得体会：外汇及黄金市场，以及全球化的商品市场，技术分析还是有很大用武之地。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 黑体; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">就笔者主攻的黄金市场而言，周线及日线技术分析是笔者技术分析的重点，切忌将重点进一步细化到分钟<SPAN lang=EN-US>K</SPAN>线形态</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">证券市场，特别是国内的</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">A</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">股市场，技术分析（特别是技术指标）显得非常没用。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 黑体; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">故对于<SPAN lang=EN-US>A</SPAN>股的技术指标分析，笔者从来不看日线信号，仅看周线和月线信号。<SPAN lang=EN-US> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">短线投机者的主要交易参考是技术指标，其次是跟踪当日的数据消息面。但当金价处于盘整使得技术面模糊，消息面上则今天利多、明天利空时，那么就是一种赌运。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 黑体; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">可以说目前有不少指导投资人每天赌运的人，但他们自己不赌，因为他们深知这种短线赌运的正确率。指导别人赌运是为自己获得更多提成佣金。</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">如果是指导别人每日从事短线投机劳作的生产队长，他们也知道这是最终无法获利的不道德交易，故往往为自己披上波段操作，中线操作的外衣。但跟随过的人应该知道，生产队长没有指导他们做过波段和中线交易。很多时候也并不是生产队长不想指导大家做波段、做中线，但确实缺少把握波段和中线的能力。他们分析市场的依据重点是中短期技术面，其次是数据消息等基本面。在行情突破的初期，中短期技术面往往都显示出明显的波段运行迹象，但市场大多时候不会如投资人预期般单边波段上涨或单边波段下跌。当顺应技术指引的波段迟迟没有进一步放大，而短期技术面上的波段指示又渐渐消失时，他们波段或中期操作的初衷便开始发生动摇，再度渐渐演化为每日劳作的短线操作。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">就近阶段金价运行而言，就极容易出现这种情况。当</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">9</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">月初金价从</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">950</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">美元下方强劲上扬至</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">990</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">美元上方时，很多多头信心爆棚。金价</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">2</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">～</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">8</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">月中继大三角形的向上突破是一个</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">“</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">非常</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">”</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">明显的波段看涨信号。这使得不少投资人摩拳擦掌准备搭乘一轮金价上涨的波段。但当金价突破</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">990</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">美元后的三周没有进一步明显放大涨幅，而是在围绕</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">1000</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">美元盘整，很多此前打算波段操作的人放弃了计划，因为赖以指引波段运行的技术面好像越来越模糊。再伴随消息面上看空阵营的加大，使得此前波段作多的信心进一步重创。那么近期的短线操作能够赚到钱吗？笔者以为很难。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">很多短线操作者每次操作后非常有原则地进行</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">2</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">～</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">5</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">美元的止损设置，即在操作后，金价进一步逆向波动</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">2</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">～</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">5</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">美元便认亏止损出局。但实际情况是，要在绝大多数时候看准金价不会在你操作后进一步逆向波动</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">2</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">～</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">5</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">美元，那是神仙也办不到的事情。故很多时候，这种短线操作总会以止损结束交易。唯一获利的是生产队长可以获得更多交易的佣金收益。这种短线交易可能不会让投资者在某一次形成重创，但多次遭遇止损后的投资心理无疑会受到重创。以至于真正的中期机会来临时，心态尚处于惶恐不安的狐疑状态而最终错失最佳的波段上车机会。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">就近期交易而言，周线图上依然中期利多，但日线图上的技术利多信号则在渐渐消失。目前短线做空吧，又担心金价什么时候突破启动。故金价稍有回暖上行，就会紧张担心金价就此拉开步伐，形成自己追涨，结果金价仅仅上行后又回荡。如果自己对中期多头行情没有底气，可能再度多头平仓，甚至反手做空。这种短线的错误交易在进行几个回合后将不再敢进行，最终心态从过度浮躁转为过度狐疑，失去对市场客观的感知，以至于进一步错过真正的波段行情。当发现因为狐疑而真的错过机会时，浮躁的追涨杀跌失恒心态又起，结果常常又追逐在金价运行的末端，最终错上加错。笔者多年前就曾在短线钻研上花过太多时间，在</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">04</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">年熊市中几千人</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">2</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">周的短线炒股比赛曾侥幸获得过第一，但笔者股市的短线交易并不顺利，目前股市技术指标只看周线、月线，进行中长线操作，心态也很好。在</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">07</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">年</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">1</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">～</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">4</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">月的黄金场外交易中曾获得盈利</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">60</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">倍的佳绩，但随后一个多月便又回到零点。笔者在此提出这些，是希望投资人能够少走一些不必要的弯路。而尽可能的选择一个好的黄金投资出发点或黄金投资理念的科学起点。如果一个人的财富增长速度超过了他接受意外太多财富的心理准备，那么他的财富怎么来，很可能就会怎么去。我们在财富榜上也看到过太多这种故事。而如果他的财富来自于一步一步地稳扎稳打长期积累，那么他能守住他财富的可能性就非常大，因为他接受财富增长的心理并不浮躁，这使得他对待财富和创造财富更加理智。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>

帖子：绝对高手的致深感悟

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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><B><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 13.5pt; COLOR: #660000; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">为何短线交易常以失败告终？</SPAN></B><B><SPAN style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">来源：威尔鑫</SPAN></B><B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">  <A href="http://www.kitco.cn/cn/commentary/Wellxin/printerfriendly/2009-09-24.html"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; TEXT-DECORATION: none; text-underline: none"><?xml:namespace prefix = v ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:vml" /><v:shapetype id=_x0000_t75 stroked="f" filled="f" path="m@4@5l@4@11@9@11@9@5xe" o:preferrelative="t" o:spt="75" coordsize="21600,21600"> <v:stroke joinstyle="miter"></v:stroke><v:formulas><v:f eqn="if lineDrawn pixelLineWidth 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @0 1 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum 0 0 @1"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @2 1 2"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelWidth"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelHeight"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @0 0 1"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @6 1 2"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelWidth"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @8 21600 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelHeight"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @10 21600 0"></v:f></v:formulas><v:path o:connecttype="rect" gradientshapeok="t" o:extrusionok="f"></v:path><?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o:lock aspectratio="t" v:ext="edit"></o:lock></v:shapetype><v:shape id=_x0000_i1025 style="WIDTH: 20.25pt; HEIGHT: 17.25pt" o:button="t" alt="打印版" type="#_x0000_t75"><v:imagedata o:href="http://www.kitco.cn/images/printicon.gif" src="file:///C:\DOCUME~1\ADMINI~1\LOCALS~1\Temp\msohtml1\01\clip_image001.gif"></v:imagedata></v:shape></SPAN></A><BR>2009-09-24 14:06:56</SPAN></B><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">周三国际现货金价以</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">1013.5</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">美元开盘，最高上试</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">1018</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">美元，最低下探</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">1005.3</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">美元，报收</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">1007.2</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">美元，较上个交易日下跌</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">6.3</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">美元，跌幅</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">0.62</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">％，日</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">K</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">线呈现一根回吐周三约半涨幅的小阴线。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">周三金价总体呈现窄幅振荡下行态势，但从盘口观察，真正决定日内涨跌的命运是美联储的利率决议及会后声明。美联储一如市场预期般在周三隔夜宣布维持联邦基金利率至</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">0.25</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">％不变，并进一步重申将在较长时期内维持该低利率以刺激经济复苏。单从消息面本身而言，几乎完全在市场意料之中，且消息面的实质性内容是进一步执行宽松的货币政策以促进经济复苏，应该利空美元。但市场主力似乎利用该消息面做了个短线，即在周二打压美元，对该消息面提前消化，使得短期美元明显超跌。在周三隔夜公布如所预期利空美元的消息时，反而利用该消息面兑现短线获利，故美元在利率决议公布后呈现先抑后扬走势。该走势对应反应在黄金市场，使得金价快速上试</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">1018</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">美元后再度转而下行至</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">1006</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">美元附近，对应美股也呈现类似走势。故周三该消息面对市场的影响是明显的，尽管该消息面对市场影响的预期可能与大多市场人士的理解相反。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">故如果从短线交易的理解来看，主力利用巧妙利用消息面赚到了钱。而一般追随消息面或短期技术面的普通投资者肯定会亏钱。但就中期趋势来看，周三美元逆消息面的走势以及对关联市场的指引肯定也是短期行为，故笔者秉持对阶段性美元趋弱的观点不变。但本期日评笔者要进一步剖析大众短线交易的失败心历。从周三的市场走势可以看出，市场主力即便做些调整性的短线，那也会有执行短线战术的战略构思，即怎么充分利用大多投资人对市场短期理解来进行对应的短线交易。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">可以说主力的短线交易绝大多数是反消息面、反技术操作。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">但与此对应的是普通投资人则是跟随消息面的</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">“</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">应该</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">”</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">指引，或跟随超短期技术面发出的买卖信号进行</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">“</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">听话</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">”</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">的交易。结果往往是消息面的</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">“</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">应该</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">”</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">变成</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">“</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">事与愿违</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">”</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">，参考教科书模式的超短期技术面指引变成精准的反向操作。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">当然，笔者并非全盘否定短线交易，但可以肯定的是</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">99</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">％的短线投机者都会以失败告终。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">这些失败者的共性是参与市场的时间不长，不少是教科书的理论信奉者，</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">“</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">金叉买进，死叉卖出</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">”</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">是教科书给的进出信号。但如果对照以往实际的历史走势，投资人可以看看</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 黑体; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">这种金叉买进与死叉卖出最终结果的正确率是多少，应该不到<SPAN lang=EN-US>50</SPAN>％</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">。因为金价大多时候处于区间盘整的运行时间较多，在区间盘整期间，当技术指标发出金叉时，短期金价往往已经有些超买了。当技术指标发出死叉时，短期金价又往往有些超卖了。结果很多据此操作的投资人最终发现，根据指示操作后，金价仅仅稍做短期停顿就掉头。故很多时候的短线操作形成</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">“</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">精确反向</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">”</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">。所以笔者以为根据这样指示来进行操作，正确率肯定低于</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">50</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">％。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 黑体; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">而一般传统的基础类技术教科书，它们对市场的理解可以说大多是无效的，投资人据此捧为希望决胜市场的圣经肯定是个错误。<SPAN lang=EN-US> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">那剩下</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">1</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">％可以获胜的短线投机者一定经历了市场充分洗礼，且我敢打赌，他们对技术指标的理解绝对不是教科书般的理解。应该是这样一种理解：他们认为技术指标在大多时候都是无效的，但某些指标在某些特定的交易时段出现较特殊信号时，交易机会可能出现了。即他们只会去抓指标出现特殊情况时的交易机会，并不是每时每刻都在盯着技术指标分析交易机会是否出现了。而失败的短线投资者则常常这样，每天盯着大多时候无用的指标磨脑袋。此外，对一个成功的短线投资者而言，你自己总结的特殊交易机会，你要学会用历史走势去测试它的正确率，这需要投资人懂些指标编程就可实现。那些每天都在分钟</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">K</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">线形态上给投资人提供短线交易机会的人，我敢肯定绝对不是短线交易的成功者。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">笔者自认为对技术面钻研不浅，任何自己想要的技术指标，或对特殊</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">K</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">线形态的组合捕捉，都可以通过编程来自动实现。但钻研越深，你会发现技术分析在很多时候无能为力，特别是对短线的无能为力。对于技术指标在各个市场的运用，笔者有些心得体会：外汇及黄金市场，以及全球化的商品市场，技术分析还是有很大用武之地。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 黑体; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">就笔者主攻的黄金市场而言，周线及日线技术分析是笔者技术分析的重点，切忌将重点进一步细化到分钟<SPAN lang=EN-US>K</SPAN>线形态</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">证券市场，特别是国内的</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">A</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">股市场，技术分析（特别是技术指标）显得非常没用。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 黑体; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">故对于<SPAN lang=EN-US>A</SPAN>股的技术指标分析，笔者从来不看日线信号，仅看周线和月线信号。<SPAN lang=EN-US> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">短线投机者的主要交易参考是技术指标，其次是跟踪当日的数据消息面。但当金价处于盘整使得技术面模糊，消息面上则今天利多、明天利空时，那么就是一种赌运。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 黑体; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">可以说目前有不少指导投资人每天赌运的人，但他们自己不赌，因为他们深知这种短线赌运的正确率。指导别人赌运是为自己获得更多提成佣金。</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">如果是指导别人每日从事短线投机劳作的生产队长，他们也知道这是最终无法获利的不道德交易，故往往为自己披上波段操作，中线操作的外衣。但跟随过的人应该知道，生产队长没有指导他们做过波段和中线交易。很多时候也并不是生产队长不想指导大家做波段、做中线，但确实缺少把握波段和中线的能力。他们分析市场的依据重点是中短期技术面，其次是数据消息等基本面。在行情突破的初期，中短期技术面往往都显示出明显的波段运行迹象，但市场大多时候不会如投资人预期般单边波段上涨或单边波段下跌。当顺应技术指引的波段迟迟没有进一步放大，而短期技术面上的波段指示又渐渐消失时，他们波段或中期操作的初衷便开始发生动摇，再度渐渐演化为每日劳作的短线操作。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">就近阶段金价运行而言，就极容易出现这种情况。当</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">9</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">月初金价从</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">950</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">美元下方强劲上扬至</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">990</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">美元上方时，很多多头信心爆棚。金价</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">2</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">～</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">8</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">月中继大三角形的向上突破是一个</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">“</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">非常</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">”</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">明显的波段看涨信号。这使得不少投资人摩拳擦掌准备搭乘一轮金价上涨的波段。但当金价突破</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">990</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">美元后的三周没有进一步明显放大涨幅，而是在围绕</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">1000</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">美元盘整，很多此前打算波段操作的人放弃了计划，因为赖以指引波段运行的技术面好像越来越模糊。再伴随消息面上看空阵营的加大，使得此前波段作多的信心进一步重创。那么近期的短线操作能够赚到钱吗？笔者以为很难。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">很多短线操作者每次操作后非常有原则地进行</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">2</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">～</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">5</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">美元的止损设置，即在操作后，金价进一步逆向波动</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">2</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">～</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">5</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">美元便认亏止损出局。但实际情况是，要在绝大多数时候看准金价不会在你操作后进一步逆向波动</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">2</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">～</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">5</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">美元，那是神仙也办不到的事情。故很多时候，这种短线操作总会以止损结束交易。唯一获利的是生产队长可以获得更多交易的佣金收益。这种短线交易可能不会让投资者在某一次形成重创，但多次遭遇止损后的投资心理无疑会受到重创。以至于真正的中期机会来临时，心态尚处于惶恐不安的狐疑状态而最终错失最佳的波段上车机会。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">就近期交易而言，周线图上依然中期利多，但日线图上的技术利多信号则在渐渐消失。目前短线做空吧，又担心金价什么时候突破启动。故金价稍有回暖上行，就会紧张担心金价就此拉开步伐，形成自己追涨，结果金价仅仅上行后又回荡。如果自己对中期多头行情没有底气，可能再度多头平仓，甚至反手做空。这种短线的错误交易在进行几个回合后将不再敢进行，最终心态从过度浮躁转为过度狐疑，失去对市场客观的感知，以至于进一步错过真正的波段行情。当发现因为狐疑而真的错过机会时，浮躁的追涨杀跌失恒心态又起，结果常常又追逐在金价运行的末端，最终错上加错。笔者多年前就曾在短线钻研上花过太多时间，在</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">04</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">年熊市中几千人</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">2</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">周的短线炒股比赛曾侥幸获得过第一，但笔者股市的短线交易并不顺利，目前股市技术指标只看周线、月线，进行中长线操作，心态也很好。在</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">07</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">年</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">1</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">～</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">4</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">月的黄金场外交易中曾获得盈利</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">60</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">倍的佳绩，但随后一个多月便又回到零点。笔者在此提出这些，是希望投资人能够少走一些不必要的弯路。而尽可能的选择一个好的黄金投资出发点或黄金投资理念的科学起点。如果一个人的财富增长速度超过了他接受意外太多财富的心理准备，那么他的财富怎么来，很可能就会怎么去。我们在财富榜上也看到过太多这种故事。而如果他的财富来自于一步一步地稳扎稳打长期积累，那么他能守住他财富的可能性就非常大，因为他接受财富增长的心理并不浮躁，这使得他对待财富和创造财富更加理智。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>

帖子：致所有黄金投资者的一封信

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<P class=MsoNormal style="BACKGROUND: white; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">路透纽约</SPAN><?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" /><st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="24" Month="9" Year="2009"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">9</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">月</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">24</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">日</SPAN></st1:chsdate><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">电</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">---</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">纽约商品期货交易所</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">(COMEX)</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">期金周四跌穿千元大关至两周低位</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">,</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">市场成交放量</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">,</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">美元受避险需求推动走强</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">,</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">令黄金对冲美元贬值的吸引力降低</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">.<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="BACKGROUND: white; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">COMEX-12</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">月期金</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">GCZ9</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">收跌</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">15.50</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">美元</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">,</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">或</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">1.5%,</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">报每盎司</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">998.90</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">美元</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">,<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="BACKGROUND: white; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 黑体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">交投区间为<SPAN lang=EN-US>1,021-991.30</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>,</SPAN>後者为<st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="10" Month="9" Year="2009"><SPAN lang=EN-US>9</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>以来最低</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="BACKGROUND: white; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">交易商称</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">,</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">低于预期的美国楼市数据引发投资者转投避险资产</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">,</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">提振美元和美国公债</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">,</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">并令金价承压</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="BACKGROUND: white; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">Auramet Trading</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">的交易部副总裁</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">Bruce Dunn</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">表示</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">,</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">金价今日回落是黄金在突破</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">1,020</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">美元强劲支撑位失败後的小幅回调</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="BACKGROUND: white; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">他表示</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">,</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">在过度做多的期金市场上</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 黑体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">,</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 黑体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">季度和月度末的头寸调整和清算也是金价走低的动因之一<SPAN lang=EN-US>.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="BACKGROUND: white; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">期权相关卖压也令</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">12</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">月合约承压</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">.COMEX 10</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">月黄金和白银期权周四到期</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="BACKGROUND: white; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">市场今日成交放量</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">,1700GMT,COMEX</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">预估成交量为</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">166,017</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">口</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="BACKGROUND: white; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">现货金</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">XAU=</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">报每盎司</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">995.30</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">美元</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">,</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">低于之前交易日尾盘的</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">1,007.05</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">美元</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">,</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">伦敦金午後定盘价</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">XAUFIX=</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">为</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">1,009.75</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">美元</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto" align=left><B><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 13.5pt; COLOR: #660000; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">为何短线交易常以失败告终？</SPAN></B><B><SPAN style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">来源：###</SPAN></B><B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">  <A href="http://www.kitco.cn/cn/commentary/Wellxin/printerfriendly/2009-09-24.html"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; TEXT-DECORATION: none; text-underline: none"><?xml:namespace prefix = v ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:vml" /><v:shapetype id=_x0000_t75 stroked="f" filled="f" path="m@4@5l@4@11@9@11@9@5xe" o:preferrelative="t" o:spt="75" coordsize="21600,21600"> <v:stroke joinstyle="miter"></v:stroke><v:formulas><v:f eqn="if lineDrawn pixelLineWidth 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @0 1 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum 0 0 @1"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @2 1 2"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelWidth"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelH#####"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @0 0 1"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @6 1 2"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelWidth"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @8 21600 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelH#####"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @10 21600 0"></v:f></v:formulas><v:path o:connecttype="rect" gradientshapeok="t" o:extrusionok="f"></v:path><o:lock aspectratio="t" v:ext="edit"></o:lock></v:shapetype><v:shape id=_x0000_i1025 style="WIDTH: 20.25pt; HEIGHT: 17.25pt" o:button="t" href="http://www.kitco.cn/cn/commentary/Wellxin/printerfriendly/2009-09-24.html" alt="打印版" type="#_x0000_t75"><v:imagedata o:href="http://www.kitco.cn/images/printicon.gif" src="file:///C:\DOCUME~1\###INI~1\LOCALS~1\Temp\msohtml1\01\clip_image001.gif"></v:imagedata></v:shape></SPAN></A><BR>2009-09-24 14:06:56</SPAN></B><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">周三国际现货金价以</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">1013.5</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">美元开盘，最高上试</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">1018</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">美元，最低下探</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">1005.3</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">美元，报收</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">1007.2</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">美元，较上个交易日下跌</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">6.3</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">美元，跌幅</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">0.62</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">％，日</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">K</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">线呈现一根回吐周三约半涨幅的小阴线。</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"> <SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">周三金价总体呈现窄幅振荡下行态势，但从盘口观察，真正决定日内涨跌的命运是美联储的利率决议及会后声明。美联储一如市场预期般在周三隔夜宣布维持联邦基金利率至</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">0.25</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">％不变，并进一步重申将在较长时期内维持该低利率以刺激经济复苏。单从消息面本身而言，几乎完全在市场意料之中，且消息面的实质性内容是进一步执行宽松的货币政策以促进经济复苏，应该利空美元。但市场主力似乎利用该消息面做了个短线，即在周二打压美元，对该消息面提前消化，使得短期美元明显超跌。在周三隔夜公布如所预期利空美元的消息时，反而利用该消息面兑现短线获利，故美元在利率决议公布后呈现先抑后扬走势。该走势对应反应在黄金市场，使得金价快速上试</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">1018</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">美元后再度转而下行至</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">1006</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">美元附近，对应美股也呈现类似走势。故周三该消息面对市场的影响是明显的，尽管该消息面对市场影响的预期可能与大多市场人士的理解相反。</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"> <SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">故如果从短线交易的理解来看，主力利用巧妙利用消息面赚到了钱。而一般追随消息面或短期技术面的普通投资者肯定会亏钱。但就中期趋势来看，周三美元逆消息面的走势以及对关联市场的指引肯定也是短期行为，故笔者秉持对阶段性美元趋弱的观点不变。但本期日评笔者要进一步剖析大众短线交易的失败心历。从周三的市场走势可以看出，市场主力即便做些调整性的短线，那也会有执行短线战术的战略构思，即怎么充分利用大多投资人对市场短期理解来进行对应的短线交易。可以说主力的短线交易绝大多数是反消息面、反技术操作。但与此对应的是普通投资人则是跟随消息面的</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">“</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">应该</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">”</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">指引，或跟随超短期技术面发出的买卖信号进行</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">“</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">听话</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">”</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">的交易。结果往往是消息面的</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">“</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">应该</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">”</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">变成</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">“</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">事与愿违</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">”</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">，参考教科书模式的超短期技术面指引变成精准的反向操作。</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"> <SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">当然，笔者并非全盘否定短线交易，但可以肯定的是</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">99</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">％的短线投机者都会以失败告终。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">这些失败者的共性是参与市场的时间不长，不少是教科书的理论信奉者，</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">“</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">金叉买进，死叉卖出</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">”</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">是教科书给的进出信号。但如果对照以往实际的历史走势，投资人可以看看</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 黑体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">这种金叉买进与死叉卖出最终结果的正确率是多少，应该不到<SPAN lang=EN-US>50</SPAN>％</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">。因为金价大多时候处于区间盘整的运行时间较多，在区间盘整期间，当技术指标发出金叉时，短期金价往往已经有些超买了。当技术指标发出死叉时，短期金价又往往有些超卖了。结果很多据此操作的投资人最终发现，根据指示操作后，金价仅仅稍做短期停顿就掉头。故很多时候的短线操作形成</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">“</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">精确反向</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">”</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">。所以笔者以为根据这样指示来进行操作，正确率肯定低于</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">50</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">％。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 黑体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">而一般传统的基础类技术教科书，它们对市场的理解可以说大多是无效的，投资人据此捧为希望决胜市场的圣经肯定是个错误。 <SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">那剩下</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">1</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">％可以获胜的短线投机者一定经历了市场充分洗礼，且我敢打赌，他们对技术指标的理解绝对不是教科书般的理解。应该是这样一种理解：他们认为技术指标在大多时候都是无效的，但某些指标在某些特定的交易时段出现较特殊信号时，交易机会可能出现了。即他们只会去抓指标出现特殊情况时的交易机会，并不是每时每刻都在盯着技术指标分析交易机会是否出现了。而失败的短线投资者则常常这样，每天盯着大多时候无用的指标磨脑袋。此外，对一个成功的短线投资者而言，你自己总结的特殊交易机会，你要学会用历史走势去测试它的正确率，这需要投资人懂些指标编程就可实现。那些每天都在分钟</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">K</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">线形态上给投资人提供短线交易机会的人，我敢肯定绝对不是短线交易的成功者。</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"> <SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">笔者自认为对技术面钻研不浅，任何自己想要的技术指标，或对特殊</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">K</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">线形态的组合捕捉，都可以通过编程来自动实现。但钻研越深，你会发现技术分析在很多时候无能为力，特别是对短线的无能为力。对于技术指标在各个市场的运用，笔者有些心得体会：外汇及黄金市场，以及全球化的商品市场，技术分析还是有很大用武之地。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 黑体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">就笔者主攻的黄金市场而言，周线及日线技术分析是笔者技术分析的重点，切忌将重点进一步细化到分钟<SPAN lang=EN-US>K</SPAN>线形态</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">证券市场，特别是国内的</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">A</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">股市场，技术分析（特别是技术指标）显得非常没用。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 黑体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">故对于<SPAN lang=EN-US>A</SPAN>股的技术指标分析，笔者从来不看日线信号，仅看周线和月线信号。 <SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">短线投机者的主要交易参考是技术指标，其次是跟踪当日的数据消息面。但当金价处于盘整使得技术面模糊，消息面上则今天利多、明天利空时，那么就是一种赌运。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 黑体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">可以说目前有不少指导投资人每天赌运的人，但他们自己不赌，因为他们深知这种短线赌运的正确率。指导别人赌运是为自己获得更多提成佣金。</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">如果是指导别人每日从事短线投机劳作的生产队长，他们也知道这是最终无法获利的不道德交易，故往往为自己披上波段操作，中线操作的外衣。但跟随过的人应该知道，生产队长没有指导他们做过波段和中线交易。很多时候也并不是生产队长不想指导大家做波段、做中线，但确实缺少把握波段和中线的能力。他们分析市场的依据重点是中短期技术面，其次是数据消息等基本面。在行情突破的初期，中短期技术面往往都显示出明显的波段运行迹象，但市场大多时候不会如投资人预期般单边波段上涨或单边波段下跌。当顺应技术指引的波段迟迟没有进一步放大，而短期技术面上的波段指示又渐渐消失时，他们波段或中期操作的初衷便开始发生动摇，再度渐渐演化为每日劳作的短线操作。</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"> <SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">就近阶段金价运行而言，就极容易出现这种情况。当</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">9</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">月初金价从</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">950</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">美元下方强劲上扬至</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">990</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">美元上方时，很多多头信心爆棚。金价</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">2</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">～</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">8</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">月中继大三角形的向上突破是一个</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">“</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">非常</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">”</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">明显的波段看涨信号。这使得不少投资人摩拳擦掌准备搭乘一轮金价上涨的波段。但当金价突破</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">990</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">美元后的三周没有进一步明显放大涨幅，而是在围绕</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">1000</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">美元盘整，很多此前打算波段操作的人放弃了计划，因为赖以指引波段运行的技术面好像越来越模糊。再伴随消息面上看空阵营的加大，使得此前波段作多的信心进一步重创。那么近期的短线操作能够赚到钱吗？笔者以为很难。</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"> <SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">很多短线操作者每次操作后非常有原则地进行</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">2</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">～</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">5</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">美元的止损设置，即在操作后，金价进一步逆向波动</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">2</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">～</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">5</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">美元便认亏止损出局。但实际情况是，要在绝大多数时候看准金价不会在你操作后进一步逆向波动</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">2</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">～</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">5</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">美元，那是神仙也办不到的事情。故很多时候，这种短线操作总会以止损结束交易。唯一获利的是生产队长可以获得更多交易的佣金收益。这种短线交易可能不会让投资者在某一次形成重创，但多次遭遇止损后的投资心理无疑会受到重创。以至于真正的中期机会来临时，心态尚处于惶恐不安的狐疑状态而最终错失最佳的波段上车机会。</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"> <SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">就近期交易而言，周线图上依然中期利多，但日线图上的技术利多信号则在渐渐消失。目前短线做空吧，又担心金价什么时候突破启动。故金价稍有回暖上行，就会紧张担心金价就此拉开步伐，形成自己追涨，结果金价仅仅上行后又回荡。如果自己对中期多头行情没有底气，可能再度多头平仓，甚至反手做空。这种短线的错误交易在进行几个回合后将不再敢进行，最终心态从过度浮躁转为过度狐疑，失去对市场客观的感知，以至于进一步错过真正的波段行情。当发现因为狐疑而真的错过机会时，浮躁的追涨杀跌失恒心态又起，结果常常又追逐在金价运行的末端，最终错上加错。笔者多年前就曾在短线钻研上花过太多时间，在</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">04</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">年熊市中几千人</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">2</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">周的短线炒股比赛曾侥幸获得过第一，但笔者股市的短线交易并不顺利，目前股市技术指标只看周线、月线，进行中长线操作，心态也很好。在</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">07</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">年</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">1</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">～</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">4</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">月的黄金场外交易中曾获得盈利</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">60</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">倍的佳绩，但随后一个多月便又回到零点。笔者在此提出这些，是希望投资人能够少走一些不必要的弯路。而尽可能的选择一个好的黄金投资出发点或黄金投资理念的科学起点。如果一个人的财富增长速度超过了他接受意外太多财富的心理准备，那么他的财富怎么来，很可能就会怎么去。我们在财富榜上也看到过太多这种故事。而如果他的财富来自于一步一步地稳扎稳打长期积累，那么他能守住他财富的可能性就非常大，因为他接受财富增长的心理并不浮躁，这使得他对待财富和创造财富更加理智。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>

帖子：行情将陷入盘局本周操作切不可贪！！！

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<P class=MsoNormal style="BACKGROUND: white; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">路透纽约</SPAN><?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" /><st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="24" Month="9" Year="2009"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">9</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">月</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">24</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">日</SPAN></st1:chsdate><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">电</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">---</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">纽约商品期货交易所</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">(COMEX)</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">期金周四跌穿千元大关至两周低位</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">,</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">市场成交放量</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">,</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">美元受避险需求推动走强</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">,</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">令黄金对冲美元贬值的吸引力降低</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">.<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="BACKGROUND: white; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">COMEX-12</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">月期金</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">GCZ9</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">收跌</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">15.50</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">美元</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">,</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">或</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">1.5%,</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">报每盎司</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">998.90</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">美元</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">,<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="BACKGROUND: white; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 黑体; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">交投区间为<SPAN lang=EN-US>1,021-991.30</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>,</SPAN>後者为<st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="10" Month="9" Year="2009"><SPAN lang=EN-US>9</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>以来最低</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="BACKGROUND: white; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">交易商称</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">,</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">低于预期的美国楼市数据引发投资者转投避险资产</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">,</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">提振美元和美国公债</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">,</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">并令金价承压</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="BACKGROUND: white; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">Auramet Trading</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">的交易部副总裁</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">Bruce Dunn</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">表示</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">,</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">金价今日回落是黄金在突破</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">1,020</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">美元强劲支撑位失败後的小幅回调</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="BACKGROUND: white; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">他表示</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">,</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">在过度做多的期金市场上</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 黑体; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">,</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 黑体; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">季度和月度末的头寸调整和清算也是金价走低的动因之一<SPAN lang=EN-US>.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="BACKGROUND: white; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">期权相关卖压也令</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">12</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">月合约承压</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">.COMEX 10</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">月黄金和白银期权周四到期</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="BACKGROUND: white; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">市场今日成交放量</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">,1700GMT,COMEX</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">预估成交量为</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">166,017</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">口</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="BACKGROUND: white; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">现货金</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">XAU=</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">报每盎司</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">995.30</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">美元</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">,</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">低于之前交易日尾盘的</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">1,007.05</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">美元</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">,</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">伦敦金午後定盘价</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">XAUFIX=</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">为</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">1,009.75</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">美元</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto" align=left><B><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 13.5pt; COLOR: #660000; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial">为何短线交易常以失败告终？</SPAN></B><B><SPAN style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial">来源：###</SPAN></B><B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">  <A href="http://www.kitco.cn/cn/commentary/Wellxin/printerfriendly/2009-09-24.html"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; TEXT-DECORATION: none; text-underline: none"><?xml:namespace prefix = v ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:vml" /><v:shapetype id=_x0000_t75 stroked="f" filled="f" path="m@4@5l@4@11@9@11@9@5xe" o:preferrelative="t" o:spt="75" coordsize="21600,21600"> <v:stroke joinstyle="miter"></v:stroke><v:formulas><v:f eqn="if lineDrawn pixelLineWidth 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @0 1 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum 0 0 @1"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @2 1 2"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelWidth"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelH#####"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @0 0 1"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @6 1 2"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelWidth"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @8 21600 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelH#####"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @10 21600 0"></v:f></v:formulas><v:path o:connecttype="rect" gradientshapeok="t" o:extrusionok="f"></v:path><o:lock aspectratio="t" v:ext="edit"></o:lock></v:shapetype><v:shape id=_x0000_i1025 style="WIDTH: 20.25pt; HEIGHT: 17.25pt" o:button="t" href="http://www.kitco.cn/cn/commentary/Wellxin/printerfriendly/2009-09-24.html" alt="打印版" type="#_x0000_t75"><v:imagedata o:href="http://www.kitco.cn/images/printicon.gif" src="file:///C:\DOCUME~1\###INI~1\LOCALS~1\Temp\msohtml1\01\clip_image001.gif"></v:imagedata></v:shape></SPAN></A><BR>2009-09-24 14:06:56</SPAN></B><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">周三国际现货金价以</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">1013.5</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">美元开盘，最高上试</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">1018</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">美元，最低下探</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">1005.3</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">美元，报收</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">1007.2</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">美元，较上个交易日下跌</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">6.3</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">美元，跌幅</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">0.62</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">％，日</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">K</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">线呈现一根回吐周三约半涨幅的小阴线。</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"> <SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">周三金价总体呈现窄幅振荡下行态势，但从盘口观察，真正决定日内涨跌的命运是美联储的利率决议及会后声明。美联储一如市场预期般在周三隔夜宣布维持联邦基金利率至</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">0.25</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">％不变，并进一步重申将在较长时期内维持该低利率以刺激经济复苏。单从消息面本身而言，几乎完全在市场意料之中，且消息面的实质性内容是进一步执行宽松的货币政策以促进经济复苏，应该利空美元。但市场主力似乎利用该消息面做了个短线，即在周二打压美元，对该消息面提前消化，使得短期美元明显超跌。在周三隔夜公布如所预期利空美元的消息时，反而利用该消息面兑现短线获利，故美元在利率决议公布后呈现先抑后扬走势。该走势对应反应在黄金市场，使得金价快速上试</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">1018</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">美元后再度转而下行至</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">1006</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">美元附近，对应美股也呈现类似走势。故周三该消息面对市场的影响是明显的，尽管该消息面对市场影响的预期可能与大多市场人士的理解相反。</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"> <SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">故如果从短线交易的理解来看，主力利用巧妙利用消息面赚到了钱。而一般追随消息面或短期技术面的普通投资者肯定会亏钱。但就中期趋势来看，周三美元逆消息面的走势以及对关联市场的指引肯定也是短期行为，故笔者秉持对阶段性美元趋弱的观点不变。但本期日评笔者要进一步剖析大众短线交易的失败心历。从周三的市场走势可以看出，市场主力即便做些调整性的短线，那也会有执行短线战术的战略构思，即怎么充分利用大多投资人对市场短期理解来进行对应的短线交易。可以说主力的短线交易绝大多数是反消息面、反技术操作。但与此对应的是普通投资人则是跟随消息面的</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">“</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">应该</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">”</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">指引，或跟随超短期技术面发出的买卖信号进行</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">“</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">听话</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">”</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">的交易。结果往往是消息面的</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">“</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">应该</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">”</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">变成</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">“</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">事与愿违</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">”</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">，参考教科书模式的超短期技术面指引变成精准的反向操作。</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"> <SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">当然，笔者并非全盘否定短线交易，但可以肯定的是</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">99</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">％的短线投机者都会以失败告终。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">这些失败者的共性是参与市场的时间不长，不少是教科书的理论信奉者，</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">“</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">金叉买进，死叉卖出</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">”</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">是教科书给的进出信号。但如果对照以往实际的历史走势，投资人可以看看</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 黑体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">这种金叉买进与死叉卖出最终结果的正确率是多少，应该不到<SPAN lang=EN-US>50</SPAN>％</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">。因为金价大多时候处于区间盘整的运行时间较多，在区间盘整期间，当技术指标发出金叉时，短期金价往往已经有些超买了。当技术指标发出死叉时，短期金价又往往有些超卖了。结果很多据此操作的投资人最终发现，根据指示操作后，金价仅仅稍做短期停顿就掉头。故很多时候的短线操作形成</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">“</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">精确反向</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">”</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">。所以笔者以为根据这样指示来进行操作，正确率肯定低于</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">50</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">％。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 黑体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">而一般传统的基础类技术教科书，它们对市场的理解可以说大多是无效的，投资人据此捧为希望决胜市场的圣经肯定是个错误。 <SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">那剩下</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">1</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">％可以获胜的短线投机者一定经历了市场充分洗礼，且我敢打赌，他们对技术指标的理解绝对不是教科书般的理解。应该是这样一种理解：他们认为技术指标在大多时候都是无效的，但某些指标在某些特定的交易时段出现较特殊信号时，交易机会可能出现了。即他们只会去抓指标出现特殊情况时的交易机会，并不是每时每刻都在盯着技术指标分析交易机会是否出现了。而失败的短线投资者则常常这样，每天盯着大多时候无用的指标磨脑袋。此外，对一个成功的短线投资者而言，你自己总结的特殊交易机会，你要学会用历史走势去测试它的正确率，这需要投资人懂些指标编程就可实现。那些每天都在分钟</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">K</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">线形态上给投资人提供短线交易机会的人，我敢肯定绝对不是短线交易的成功者。</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"> <SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">笔者自认为对技术面钻研不浅，任何自己想要的技术指标，或对特殊</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">K</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">线形态的组合捕捉，都可以通过编程来自动实现。但钻研越深，你会发现技术分析在很多时候无能为力，特别是对短线的无能为力。对于技术指标在各个市场的运用，笔者有些心得体会：外汇及黄金市场，以及全球化的商品市场，技术分析还是有很大用武之地。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 黑体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">就笔者主攻的黄金市场而言，周线及日线技术分析是笔者技术分析的重点，切忌将重点进一步细化到分钟<SPAN lang=EN-US>K</SPAN>线形态</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">证券市场，特别是国内的</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">A</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">股市场，技术分析（特别是技术指标）显得非常没用。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 黑体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">故对于<SPAN lang=EN-US>A</SPAN>股的技术指标分析，笔者从来不看日线信号，仅看周线和月线信号。 <SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">短线投机者的主要交易参考是技术指标，其次是跟踪当日的数据消息面。但当金价处于盘整使得技术面模糊，消息面上则今天利多、明天利空时，那么就是一种赌运。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 黑体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">可以说目前有不少指导投资人每天赌运的人，但他们自己不赌，因为他们深知这种短线赌运的正确率。指导别人赌运是为自己获得更多提成佣金。</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">如果是指导别人每日从事短线投机劳作的生产队长，他们也知道这是最终无法获利的不道德交易，故往往为自己披上波段操作，中线操作的外衣。但跟随过的人应该知道，生产队长没有指导他们做过波段和中线交易。很多时候也并不是生产队长不想指导大家做波段、做中线，但确实缺少把握波段和中线的能力。他们分析市场的依据重点是中短期技术面，其次是数据消息等基本面。在行情突破的初期，中短期技术面往往都显示出明显的波段运行迹象，但市场大多时候不会如投资人预期般单边波段上涨或单边波段下跌。当顺应技术指引的波段迟迟没有进一步放大，而短期技术面上的波段指示又渐渐消失时，他们波段或中期操作的初衷便开始发生动摇，再度渐渐演化为每日劳作的短线操作。</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"> <SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">就近阶段金价运行而言，就极容易出现这种情况。当</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">9</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">月初金价从</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">950</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">美元下方强劲上扬至</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">990</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">美元上方时，很多多头信心爆棚。金价</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">2</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">～</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">8</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">月中继大三角形的向上突破是一个</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">“</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">非常</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">”</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">明显的波段看涨信号。这使得不少投资人摩拳擦掌准备搭乘一轮金价上涨的波段。但当金价突破</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">990</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">美元后的三周没有进一步明显放大涨幅，而是在围绕</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">1000</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">美元盘整，很多此前打算波段操作的人放弃了计划，因为赖以指引波段运行的技术面好像越来越模糊。再伴随消息面上看空阵营的加大，使得此前波段作多的信心进一步重创。那么近期的短线操作能够赚到钱吗？笔者以为很难。</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"> <SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">很多短线操作者每次操作后非常有原则地进行</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">2</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">～</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">5</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">美元的止损设置，即在操作后，金价进一步逆向波动</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">2</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">～</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">5</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">美元便认亏止损出局。但实际情况是，要在绝大多数时候看准金价不会在你操作后进一步逆向波动</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">2</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">～</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">5</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">美元，那是神仙也办不到的事情。故很多时候，这种短线操作总会以止损结束交易。唯一获利的是生产队长可以获得更多交易的佣金收益。这种短线交易可能不会让投资者在某一次形成重创，但多次遭遇止损后的投资心理无疑会受到重创。以至于真正的中期机会来临时，心态尚处于惶恐不安的狐疑状态而最终错失最佳的波段上车机会。</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"> <SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">就近期交易而言，周线图上依然中期利多，但日线图上的技术利多信号则在渐渐消失。目前短线做空吧，又担心金价什么时候突破启动。故金价稍有回暖上行，就会紧张担心金价就此拉开步伐，形成自己追涨，结果金价仅仅上行后又回荡。如果自己对中期多头行情没有底气，可能再度多头平仓，甚至反手做空。这种短线的错误交易在进行几个回合后将不再敢进行，最终心态从过度浮躁转为过度狐疑，失去对市场客观的感知，以至于进一步错过真正的波段行情。当发现因为狐疑而真的错过机会时，浮躁的追涨杀跌失恒心态又起，结果常常又追逐在金价运行的末端，最终错上加错。笔者多年前就曾在短线钻研上花过太多时间，在</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">04</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">年熊市中几千人</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">2</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">周的短线炒股比赛曾侥幸获得过第一，但笔者股市的短线交易并不顺利，目前股市技术指标只看周线、月线，进行中长线操作，心态也很好。在</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">07</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">年</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">1</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">～</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">4</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">月的黄金场外交易中曾获得盈利</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">60</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana">倍的佳绩，但随后一个多月便又回到零点。笔者在此提出这些，是希望投资人能够少走一些不必要的弯路。而尽可能的选择一个好的黄金投资出发点或黄金投资理念的科学起点。如果一个人的财富增长速度超过了他接受意外太多财富的心理准备，那么他的财富怎么来，很可能就会怎么去。我们在财富榜上也看到过太多这种故事。而如果他的财富来自于一步一步地稳扎稳打长期积累，那么他能守住他财富的可能性就非常大，因为他接受财富增长的心理并不浮躁，这使得他对待财富和创造财富更加理智。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>

帖子：9.24【黄金现货】震荡回落，逢高做空，防范风险

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鲜花和掌声送给不放空炮的人！52c4

帖子：5.14历史会重演

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鲜花和掌声送给不放空炮的人！52c4

帖子：5.14历史会重演

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何来的“<FONT size=5>故日交易者今日操作可在923到918区间相应建仓多单。止损3块左右。目标935.</FONT>”简直是误人子弟！

帖子：价格总会沿着最小阻力线走！

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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">很多分析都喜欢在每天的</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">####</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">上给出很多点位，实则不然，原因如下：</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial"><BR></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">点位多，进场的机会多，就会多操作，实则犯了操作大忌，正所谓，多做多错，少做少错，不做不错。<BR>这样做只会让交易商合不陇嘴，分你的心，分你的神，分你口袋里面亲爱的美元而已。<BR>其实在黄金这样的商品交易市场中，一个星期，五天的交易日，每天有一次进场机会就很不错，更不要说操作好多次，你不给市场扔钱，谁仍？<BR></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o:p><BR><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">很多分析都喜欢在每天的</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">####</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">上给出很多点位,其实是有误导的成份存在，约占50%吧！<BR>多做多错，少做少错，不做不错。这位朋友说出了炒黄金亏钱的真谛。比如你开了5万的户（港元），每操作一次点差390，佣金390，止损2-3美元约2340。也就是说你操作一次的成本是3000多，10次耗你3万多，算你操作成功率在70%左右，你的本金给你30次操作将一分不剩！<BR><BR>炒黄金如做爱，一个月3-4次，每次赚3-4美元（2340港元），一个月下来，你也月入过万了。<BR>皇帝后宫佳丽多，每天一人一次或2次，做得多死得快！<BR>炒黄金，也是炒得多死得快！（钱亏光得快！）<BR></SPAN></o:p></SPAN></P>

帖子：致所有黄金投资者的一封信

最后回复：未填写删除
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">很多分析都喜欢在每天的</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">####</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">上给出很多点位，实则不然，原因如下：</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial"><BR></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">点位多，进场的机会多，就会多操作，实则犯了操作大忌，正所谓，多做多错，少做少错，不做不错。<BR>这样做只会让交易商合不陇嘴，分你的心，分你的神，分你口袋里面亲爱的美元而已。<BR>其实在黄金这样的商品交易市场中，一个星期，五天的交易日，每天有一次进场机会就很不错，更不要说操作好多次，你不给市场扔钱，谁仍？<BR></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o:p><BR><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">很多分析都喜欢在每天的</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">####</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">上给出很多点位,其实是有误导的成份存在，约占50%吧！<BR>多做多错，少做少错，不做不错。这位朋友说出了炒黄金亏钱的真谛。比如你开了5万的户（港元），每操作一次点差390，佣金390，止损2-3美元约2340。也就是说你操作一次的成本是3000多，10次耗你3万多，算你操作成功率在70%左右，你的本金给你30次操作将一分不剩！<BR><BR>炒黄金如做爱，一个月3-4次，每次赚3-4美元（2340港元），一个月下来，你也月入过万了。<BR>皇帝后宫佳丽多，每天一人一次或2次，做得多死得快！<BR>炒黄金，也是炒得多死得快！（钱亏光得快！）<BR></SPAN></o:p></SPAN></P>

帖子：致所有黄金投资者的一封信

最后回复：未填写删除
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">很多分析都喜欢在每天的</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">####</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">上给出很多点位，实则不然，原因如下：</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial"><BR></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">点位多，进场的机会多，就会多操作，实则犯了操作大忌，正所谓，多做多错，少做少错，不做不错。<BR>这样做只会让交易商合不陇嘴，分你的心，分你的神，分你口袋里面亲爱的美元而已。<BR>其实在黄金这样的商品交易市场中，一个星期，五天的交易日，每天有一次进场机会就很不错，更不要说操作好多次，你不给市场扔钱，谁仍？<BR></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o:p><BR><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">很多分析都喜欢在每天的</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">####</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">上给出很多点位,其实是有误导的成份存在，约占50%吧！<BR>多做多错，少做少错，不做不错。这位朋友说出了炒黄金亏钱的真谛。比如你开了5万的户（港元），每操作一次点差390，佣金390，止损2-3美元约2340。也就是说你操作一次的成本是3000多，10次耗你3万多，算你操作成功率在70%左右，你的本金给你30次操作将一分不剩！<BR><BR>炒黄金如做爱，一个月3-4次，每次赚3-4美元（2340港元），一个月下来，你也月入过万了。<BR>皇帝后宫佳丽多，每天一人一次或2次，做得多死得快！<BR>炒黄金，也是炒得多死得快！（钱亏光得快！）<BR></SPAN></o:p></SPAN></P>

帖子：天图背离，非农来袭，黄金何去何从？

最后回复：未填写删除

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今日段位排行榜 ( 综合收益率=当日浮动收益率+当日收益率 )

排名
昵称
段位
综合收益率
昨日PK积分
可获积分

1
投资英雄
青铜四段
100.00%
20
20

2
投资英雄
青铜四段
100.00%
20
20

3
投资英雄
青铜四段
100.00%
20
20

4
投资英雄
青铜四段
100.00%
20
20

5
投资英雄
青铜四段
100.00%
20
20

6
投资英雄
青铜四段
100.00%
20
20

7
投资英雄
青铜四段
100.00%
20
20

8
投资英雄
青铜四段
100.00%
20
20

9
投资英雄
青铜四段
100.00%
20
20

10
投资英雄
青铜四段
100.00%
20
20

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