理财交易员观点_投资英雄，让交易更简单

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<P>感谢大家的支持我会更尽力的为大家送上及时的操作策略</P><hr style='height:50%;color:grey;'>尽一切方法思考明天的事，谨慎的思考，计划及做准备，但是切勿为明天焦虑

帖子：04-12黄金分析报告

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<P><FONT size=6><FONT color=#ff0000>是的所为我用回复的方式发出了分析图表，你把图表保存至电脑上就会看得更清楚些~~~谢谢支持</P></FONT></FONT><hr style='height:50%;color:grey;'>尽一切方法思考明天的事，谨慎的思考，计划及做准备，但是切勿为明天焦虑

帖子：请顺势而为-金价再次验证中期趋势线的有效性

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<IMG border=0 src="/FX168MEMBERCENTER/UpFile/20107410611.JPG" width=800 height=533><BR><IMG border=0 src="/FX168MEMBERCENTER/UpFile/20107410821.jpg" width=800 height=459>

帖子：请顺势而为-金价再次验证中期趋势线的有效性

最后回复：未填写删除
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21.75pt"><SPAN style="COLOR: #000000"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 16pt; COLOR: #000000; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 39; mso-hansi-font-family: 39"><FONT color=#ff0000>黄金2010年投资分析报告</FONT><BR>   回顾</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #000000"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: #000000">2009</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: #000000; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 39; mso-hansi-font-family: 39">年</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: #000000">10</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: #000000; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 39; mso-hansi-font-family: 39">月初金价站上了</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: #000000">1000</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: #000000; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 39; mso-hansi-font-family: 39">美元</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: #000000">/</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: #000000; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 39; mso-hansi-font-family: 39">盎司，正如牛年的金牛一般直冲</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: #000000">1226.42</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: #000000; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 39; mso-hansi-font-family: 39">，目前是冲高回落至</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: #000000">1126</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: #000000; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 39; mso-hansi-font-family: 39">。</SPAN></SPAN></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21.75pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #000000"><SPAN style="COLOR: #000000; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 39; mso-hansi-font-family: 39">黄金大涨的原因</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: #000000; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 39; mso-hansi-font-family: 39">有以下几个因素：</SPAN></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt 30pt; TEXT-INDENT: -21pt; mso-list: l2 level1 lfo1; tab-stops: list 30.0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #000000"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: #000000; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="COLOR: #000000; mso-list: Ignore">一，</SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: #000000; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">在信用货币体系下，宽松的货币政策与长期低利率，必然导致通货膨胀，而高通货膨胀必然引起金价上涨，甚至大幅上涨。</P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt 63.75pt; TEXT-INDENT: -26.25pt; mso-list: l1 level1 lfo2; tab-stops: list 63.75pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-list: Ignore">1.<SPAN style="FONT: 7pt 39">           </SPAN></SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">美国自<SPAN lang=EN-US>2007</SPAN>年<SPAN lang=EN-US>9</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>18</SPAN>日连续<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>次降息，其利率从<SPAN lang=EN-US>4.75%</SPAN>降至目前的<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.25%</SPAN>，</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 39; mso-hansi-font-family: 39; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">基准利率调整则旨在为经济、金融复苏营造宽松的货币环境。</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">低利率政策市通胀的温床。<SPAN lang=EN-US><?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt 63.75pt; TEXT-INDENT: -26.25pt; mso-list: l1 level1 lfo2; tab-stops: list 63.75pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 39"><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: Times New Roman; mso-list: Ignore">2.<SPAN style="FONT: 12pt 39">            </SPAN></SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 39; mso-hansi-font-family: 39; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">美国布什总统签署</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Times New Roman; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">7,000</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 39; mso-hansi-font-family: 39; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">亿美元法案救助计划，</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: Times New Roman; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"> </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 39; mso-hansi-font-family: 39; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">奥巴马提案提供</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Times New Roman; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">7500</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 39; mso-hansi-font-family: 39; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">亿美元新资金拯救银行业，为流通领域提供了充足的流动性。</SPAN></P><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: #000000"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></SPAN> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt 63.75pt; TEXT-INDENT: -26.25pt; mso-list: l1 level1 lfo2; tab-stops: list 63.75pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: #000000; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="COLOR: #000000; mso-list: Ignore"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #000000"></SPAN></SPAN></SPAN> </P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt 63.75pt; TEXT-INDENT: -26.25pt; mso-list: l1 level1 lfo2; tab-stops: list 63.75pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: #000000; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="COLOR: #000000; mso-list: Ignore"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #000000"></SPAN></SPAN></SPAN> </P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt 30pt; TEXT-INDENT: -21pt; mso-list: l2 level1 lfo1; tab-stops: list 30.0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #000000"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: #000000; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="COLOR: #000000; mso-list: Ignore">二，</SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: #000000; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">资本的流动：<SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: #000000"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt 18pt"><SPAN style="COLOR: #000000"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #000000"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: #000000; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="COLOR: #000000; mso-spacerun: yes">     </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: #000000; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><SPAN style="COLOR: #000000; mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN>在以中国为代表的国家，在<SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: #000000">8</SPAN>月初以来，开始将宽松的货币政策进行公开微调，股市从<SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: #000000">3478</SPAN>调到<SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: #000000">2639</SPAN>（为期一个月），部分股市资金流入金市，其中国内如<SPAN style="COLOR: #000000; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ??; mso-hansi-font-family: ??; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">佛山、东莞与珠海等珠三角城市的购金人数、购金重量较之广州更为突出，其金条销售呈现井喷式行情。</SPAN></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: #000000; FONT-FAMILY: ??; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #000000"> </SPAN></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt 30pt; TEXT-INDENT: -21pt; mso-list: l2 level1 lfo1; tab-stops: list 30.0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #000000"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: #000000; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="COLOR: #000000; mso-list: Ignore">三，</SPAN></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: #000000"> </SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: #000000; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 39; mso-hansi-font-family: 39">黄金供求关系：</SPAN></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt 59.95pt; TEXT-INDENT: -21pt; mso-para-margin-left: 3.71gd; mso-char-indent-count: -2.0"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #000000"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: #000000"><SPAN style="COLOR: #000000; mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>09</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: #000000; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 39; mso-hansi-font-family: 39">年相比</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: #000000">08</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: #000000; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 39; mso-hansi-font-family: 39">年的供求关系对比：总供应量同比于</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: #000000">08</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: #000000; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 39; mso-hansi-font-family: 39">年小幅上扬，</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: #000000; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 39; mso-hansi-font-family: 39">但总的需求量三季度同比下降了</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: #000000">35%</SPAN></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt 38.95pt; TEXT-INDENT: 10.5pt; mso-para-margin-left: 3.71gd; mso-char-indent-count: 1.0"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #000000; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 39; mso-hansi-font-family: 39">主要的原因在于：</SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt 38.95pt; TEXT-INDENT: 10.5pt; mso-para-margin-left: 3.71gd; mso-char-indent-count: 1.0"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #000000"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: #000000"><SPAN style="COLOR: #000000; mso-spacerun: yes">  </SPAN>1, </SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: #000000; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">央行售金的数量在不断减少。在美元贬值的大趋势下，各国央行的售金会更加谨慎，甚至变成购买黄金，如印度购金<SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: #000000">200</SPAN>吨，斯里兰卡购金<SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: #000000">10</SPAN>吨，毛里求斯购金<SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: #000000">2</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: #000000"> </SPAN></SPAN></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: #000000; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><BR><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #000000"><SPAN style="COLOR: #000000; mso-spacerun: yes">    </SPAN>2, </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #000000; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">在金价高企的情形下，首饰需求<SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: #000000">Q3</SPAN>同比下降了<SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: #000000">32%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: #000000"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt 36.75pt; TEXT-INDENT: -36.75pt; mso-char-indent-count: -3.5"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #000000"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: #000000"><SPAN style="COLOR: #000000; mso-spacerun: yes">           </SPAN>3</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: #000000; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 39; mso-hansi-font-family: 39">，</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: #000000; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">黄金<SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: #000000">ETF</SPAN>的增持黄金情况<SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: #000000"> </SPAN></SPAN></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: #000000; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><BR></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #000000; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">近年来，黄金<SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: #000000">ETF</SPAN>不断增加黄金的持有量，是坚定看涨黄金的持有者。截至<SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: #000000">9</SPAN>月底，<SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: #000000">SPDR</SPAN>持金量较年初增加了<SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: #000000">313.8</SPAN>吨，增幅达到<SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: #000000">40</SPAN>％。只要黄金<SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: #000000">ETF</SPAN>不大幅减持，就说明他们看好后市，对黄金市场就是很大的利好。</SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt 36.75pt; TEXT-INDENT: -36.75pt; mso-char-indent-count: -3.5"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #000000"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: #000000; FONT-FAMILY: ??; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><SPAN style="COLOR: #000000; mso-list: Ignore">四，</SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: #000000; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ??; mso-hansi-font-family: ??; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">黄金的季节性规律</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: #000000; FONT-FAMILY: ??; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt 39pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #000000"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: #000000; FONT-FAMILY: ??; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><SPAN style="COLOR: #000000; mso-spacerun: yes">   </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: #000000; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ??; mso-hansi-font-family: ??; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">黄金在三季度末四季度来临之际，步入了首饰类需求的高峰（首饰需求占整个需求的</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: #000000; FONT-FAMILY: ??; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">69%</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: #000000; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ??; mso-hansi-font-family: ??; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">），金价在需求的推动下价格上涨。</SPAN></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt 39pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #000000"><SPAN style="COLOR: #000000; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ??; mso-hansi-font-family: ??; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"></SPAN></SPAN><BR><SPAN style="COLOR: #000000">展望<SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #000000"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: #000000; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">2010</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: #000000; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">年黄金的走势</SPAN></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: #000000; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #000000"> </SPAN></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt 95.25pt; TEXT-INDENT: -41.25pt; mso-list: l1 level2 lfo2; tab-stops: list 95.25pt"><SPAN style="COLOR: #000000"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: #000000; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><SPAN style="COLOR: #000000; mso-list: Ignore"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #000000">一，</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT: 7pt 39; COLOR: #000000">              </SPAN></SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #000000"><SPAN style="COLOR: #000000; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 39; mso-hansi-font-family: 39; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">全球经济步入复苏，各国央行将在保持经济稳定增长的基础上，考虑宽松货币政策的推出，在一定程度上回收流动性。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: #000000; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt 58.5pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #000000"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: #000000; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><SPAN style="COLOR: #000000; mso-spacerun: yes">      </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: #000000; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 39; mso-hansi-font-family: 39; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">如：</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: #000000; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">09</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: #000000; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 39; mso-hansi-font-family: 39; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">年</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: #000000; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">8</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: #000000; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 39; mso-hansi-font-family: 39; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">月</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: #000000; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">24</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: #000000; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 39; mso-hansi-font-family: 39; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">日，以色列首先宣布上调基准利率</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: #000000; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">25</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: #000000; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 39; mso-hansi-font-family: 39; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">个基点至</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: #000000; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">0.75%</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: #000000; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 39; mso-hansi-font-family: 39; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">，</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: #000000; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt 58.5pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #000000"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: #000000; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><SPAN style="COLOR: #000000; mso-spacerun: yes">         </SPAN>09</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: #000000; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 39; mso-hansi-font-family: 39; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">年</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: #000000; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">10</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: #000000; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 39; mso-hansi-font-family: 39; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">月以来，澳洲连续加息三次，利率从</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: #000000; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">3.00%</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: #000000; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 39; mso-hansi-font-family: 39; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">至</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: #000000; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">3.75%</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: #000000; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 39; mso-hansi-font-family: 39; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">，</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: #000000; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt 90pt; TEXT-INDENT: 15.05pt; mso-para-margin-left: 8.57gd; mso-char-indent-count: 1.43"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #000000">特别是美国：稳定的增长，提高加息的预期，美元主要功能不再是之前的避险货币，作为美国的本币随着美经济的增长，需要得到增值以控制通胀。<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt 95.25pt; TEXT-INDENT: -5.25pt; mso-para-margin-left: 8.57gd; mso-char-indent-count: -.5"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #000000"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: #000000; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">1.<SPAN style="COLOR: #000000; mso-spacerun: yes">  </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: #000000; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 39; mso-hansi-font-family: 39; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">进入三季度美</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: #000000; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">GDP</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: #000000; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 39; mso-hansi-font-family: 39; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">同比大幅上涨</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: #000000; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">+3.5%</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: #000000; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 39; mso-hansi-font-family: 39; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">，</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: #000000; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">I*****</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: #000000; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 39; mso-hansi-font-family: 39; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">为</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: #000000; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">55.7</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: #000000; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 39; mso-hansi-font-family: 39; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">，成屋销售同比增长</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: #000000; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">10.1% </SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: #000000; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 39; mso-hansi-font-family: 39; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">零售销售同比增长了</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: #000000; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">1.3%</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: #000000; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 39; mso-hansi-font-family: 39; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">，消费者信心指数也提高到了</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: #000000; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">49.5</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: #000000; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 39; mso-hansi-font-family: 39; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">等一系列数据表明了美国的经济在复苏和增长。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: #000000; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt 84pt; TEXT-INDENT: -5.25pt; mso-para-margin-left: 7.5gd; mso-char-indent-count: -.5"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #000000"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: #000000; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">2.<SPAN style="COLOR: #000000; mso-spacerun: yes">   </SPAN>2009</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: #000000; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 39; mso-hansi-font-family: 39; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">年</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: #000000; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">12</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: #000000; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 39; mso-hansi-font-family: 39; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">月</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: #000000; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">4</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: #000000; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 39; mso-hansi-font-family: 39; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">日，</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: #000000; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"> </SPAN><SPAN class=hangju style="COLOR: #000000"><SPAN style="COLOR: #000000; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 39; mso-hansi-font-family: 39; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">美国劳工部周五公布，</SPAN></SPAN><SPAN class=hangju style="COLOR: #000000"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: #000000; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">11</SPAN></SPAN><SPAN class=hangju style="COLOR: #000000"><SPAN style="COLOR: #000000; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 39; mso-hansi-font-family: 39; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">月美国经季节调整非农业就业人口较前月减少</SPAN></SPAN><SPAN class=hangju style="COLOR: #000000"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: #000000; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">1.1</SPAN></SPAN><SPAN class=hangju style="COLOR: #000000"><SPAN style="COLOR: #000000; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 39; mso-hansi-font-family: 39; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">万人</SPAN></SPAN><SPAN class=hangju style="COLOR: #000000"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: #000000; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">;11</SPAN></SPAN><SPAN class=hangju style="COLOR: #000000"><SPAN style="COLOR: #000000; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 39; mso-hansi-font-family: 39; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">月失业率为</SPAN></SPAN><SPAN class=hangju style="COLOR: #000000"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: #000000; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">10.0%</SPAN></SPAN><SPAN class=hangju style="COLOR: #000000"><SPAN style="COLOR: #000000; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 39; mso-hansi-font-family: 39; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">此次为</SPAN></SPAN><SPAN class=hangju style="COLOR: #000000"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: #000000; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">2007</SPAN></SPAN><SPAN class=hangju style="COLOR: #000000"><SPAN style="COLOR: #000000; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 39; mso-hansi-font-family: 39; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">年</SPAN></SPAN><SPAN class=hangju style="COLOR: #000000"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: #000000; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">12</SPAN></SPAN><SPAN class=hangju style="COLOR: #000000"><SPAN style="COLOR: #000000; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 39; mso-hansi-font-family: 39; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">月以来最强劲表现无疑为投资者对美国经济基本面信心注入一剂强心剂。</SPAN></SPAN></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: #000000; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><BR></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #000000"><SPAN style="COLOR: #000000; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 39; mso-hansi-font-family: 39; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">表明了美国经济开始了稳定的增长。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: #000000; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt 84pt; TEXT-INDENT: -5.25pt; mso-para-margin-left: 7.5gd; mso-char-indent-count: -.5"><SPAN style="COLOR: #000000"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #000000"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: #000000; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">3.<SPAN style="COLOR: #000000; mso-spacerun: yes">    </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: #000000; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 39; mso-hansi-font-family: 39; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">关注迪拜危机影响的深远度：笔者认为迪拜偿债危机蔓延可能性不大</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: #000000; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">,</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: #000000; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 39; mso-hansi-font-family: 39; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">危机的蔓延应该止于阿联酋。（</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: #000000; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">涉及迪拜债券的国际银行主要来自美，截至</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: #000000; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">2009</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: #000000; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">年</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: #000000; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">11</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: #000000; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">月</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: #000000; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">28</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: #000000; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">日，全球金融机构在本次金融危机中已累计损失</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: #000000; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">1.7318</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: #000000; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">万亿美元，美国和欧洲金融机构分别受损</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: #000000; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">1.1144</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: #000000; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">万亿美元和</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: #000000; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">0.5737</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: #000000; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">万亿美元，即便总计</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: #000000; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">800</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: #000000; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">亿美元的阿联酋债券出现全部亏损的极端事件，其占之前全球亏损的比例仅为</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: #000000; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">4.62%</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: #000000; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">）</SPAN></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: #000000; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #000000"> </SPAN></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #000000"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: #000000; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><SPAN style="COLOR: #000000; mso-spacerun: yes">        </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: #000000; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 39; mso-hansi-font-family: 39; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">二，非美类品种</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: #000000; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">2010</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: #000000; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 39; mso-hansi-font-family: 39; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">的趋势：</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: #000000; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt 97.5pt; TEXT-INDENT: -18pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo3; tab-stops: list 97.5pt"><SPAN style="COLOR: #000000"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: #000000; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 39"><SPAN style="COLOR: #000000; mso-list: Ignore"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #000000">1.</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT: 7pt 39; COLOR: #000000">       </SPAN></SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #000000"><SPAN style="COLOR: #000000; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 39; mso-hansi-font-family: 39; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">欧元区：</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: #000000; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">09</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: #000000; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 39; mso-hansi-font-family: 39; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">年的欧元区的</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: #000000; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">GDP</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: #000000; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 39; mso-hansi-font-family: 39; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">已有回升，其中三季度同比首次回升达</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: #000000; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">+0.6%</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: #000000; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 39; mso-hansi-font-family: 39; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">，工业生产</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: #000000; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">09</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: #000000; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 39; mso-hansi-font-family: 39; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">年的</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: #000000; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">8</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: #000000; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 39; mso-hansi-font-family: 39; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">月份同比</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: #000000; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">-15.4%</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: #000000; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 39; mso-hansi-font-family: 39; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">，</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: #000000; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">9</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: #000000; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 39; mso-hansi-font-family: 39; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">月份同比</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: #000000; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">-12.9%</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: #000000; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 39; mso-hansi-font-family: 39; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">，失业率三季度维持在高位</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: #000000; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">9.8%</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: #000000; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 39; mso-hansi-font-family: 39; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">，而</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: #000000; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">08</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: #000000; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 39; mso-hansi-font-family: 39; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">年的失业率为</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: #000000; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">7.6%</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: #000000; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 39; mso-hansi-font-family: 39; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">，笔者可以认为在欧元区经济尚未完全的稳定复苏之前，其货币政策还是属于宽松性的，在美元升值的预期下，欧元相对的贬值。</SPAN></SPAN></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt 97.5pt; TEXT-INDENT: -18pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo3; tab-stops: list 97.5pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #000000"><SPAN style="COLOR: #000000; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 39; mso-hansi-font-family: 39; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"></SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: #000000"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: #000000; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 39"><SPAN style="COLOR: #000000; mso-list: Ignore"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #000000">2.</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT: 7pt 39; COLOR: #000000">       </SPAN></SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #000000"><SPAN style="COLOR: #000000; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 39; mso-hansi-font-family: 39; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">原油</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: #000000; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">09</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: #000000; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 39; mso-hansi-font-family: 39; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">年大幅上涨的原因：</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: #000000; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #000000; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%">A.</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #000000; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 39; mso-hansi-font-family: 39">是发达国家经济下滑速度放慢</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #000000; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%">,</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #000000; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 39; mso-hansi-font-family: 39">向市场发出了世界原油需求可能增加的信息</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #000000; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%">;<SPAN style="COLOR: #000000; mso-spacerun: yes">  </SPAN>B.</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #000000; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 39; mso-hansi-font-family: 39">是美国等发达国家为了增加库存扩大了原油进口量</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #000000; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%">;<SPAN style="COLOR: #000000; mso-spacerun: yes">   </SPAN>C.</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #000000; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 39; mso-hansi-font-family: 39">是市场投机炒作成风。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: #000000; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt 97.5pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%"><SPAN style="COLOR: #000000"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #000000; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 39; mso-hansi-font-family: 39">目前美国所有原油及石油产品库存</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #000000; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%">(</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #000000; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 39; mso-hansi-font-family: 39">包括</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #000000; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%">SPR)</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #000000; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 39; mso-hansi-font-family: 39">为</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #000000; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%">1844527</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #000000; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 39; mso-hansi-font-family: 39">千桶，而在</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #000000; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%">08</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #000000; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 39; mso-hansi-font-family: 39">年的库存为</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #000000; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%">1736739</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #000000; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 39; mso-hansi-font-family: 39">千桶，以美国为代表的发达国家在金融危机里低价储备了不少的原油。目前原油市场产能过剩，油价的高企不利于全球经济的，但是阿尔及利亚石油部长在</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #000000; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%">12</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #000000; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 39; mso-hansi-font-family: 39">月</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #000000; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%">8</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #000000; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 39; mso-hansi-font-family: 39">日指出</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #000000; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%">OPEC</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #000000; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 39; mso-hansi-font-family: 39">很可能在下次会议上维持石油产量不变。当然石油做为稀缺性品种会在未来上涨，阶段性的回调是必然的</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #000000; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 40.25pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-char-indent-count: 3.5"><SPAN style="COLOR: #000000"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #000000; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 39; mso-hansi-font-family: 39">三，资本流动：</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 11.5pt; COLOR: #000000; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt 99.75pt; TEXT-INDENT: 26.25pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-para-margin-left: 9.5gd; mso-char-indent-count: 2.5"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #000000"><SPAN style="COLOR: #000000; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ??; mso-hansi-font-family: ??; mso-font-kerning: 18.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-w#####: bold">美国</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: #000000; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: ??; mso-font-kerning: 18.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-w#####: bold">ETF</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: #000000; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ??; mso-hansi-font-family: ??; mso-font-kerning: 18.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-w#####: bold">黄金基金</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: #000000; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: ??; mso-font-kerning: 18.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-w#####: bold">SPDR Gold Shares</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: #000000; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ??; mso-hansi-font-family: ??; mso-font-kerning: 18.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-w#####: bold">在</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: #000000; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: ??; mso-font-kerning: 18.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-w#####: bold">12</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: #000000; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ??; mso-hansi-font-family: ??; mso-font-kerning: 18.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-w#####: bold">月</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: #000000; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: ??; mso-font-kerning: 18.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-w#####: bold">4</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: #000000; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ??; mso-hansi-font-family: ??; mso-font-kerning: 18.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-w#####: bold">日首次减仓</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: #000000; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: ??; mso-font-kerning: 18.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-w#####: bold">1.5244</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: #000000; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ??; mso-hansi-font-family: ??; mso-font-kerning: 18.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-w#####: bold">吨，在随后的</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: #000000; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: ??; mso-font-kerning: 18.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-w#####: bold">12</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: #000000; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ??; mso-hansi-font-family: ??; mso-font-kerning: 18.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-w#####: bold">月</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: #000000; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: ??; mso-font-kerning: 18.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-w#####: bold">8</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: #000000; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ??; mso-hansi-font-family: ??; mso-font-kerning: 18.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-w#####: bold">日大幅减仓</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: #000000; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: ??; mso-font-kerning: 18.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-w#####: bold">13.7</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: #000000; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ??; mso-hansi-font-family: ??; mso-font-kerning: 18.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-w#####: bold">吨，拉开了减仓的序幕。应该来说</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: #000000; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: ??; mso-font-kerning: 18.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-w#####: bold">12</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: #000000; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ??; mso-hansi-font-family: ??; mso-font-kerning: 18.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-w#####: bold">月</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: #000000; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: ??; mso-font-kerning: 18.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-w#####: bold">4</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: #000000; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ??; mso-hansi-font-family: ??; mso-font-kerning: 18.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-w#####: bold">日是黄金的多空分界日。</SPAN></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt 52.5pt; TEXT-INDENT: -52.5pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-char-indent-count: -5.0"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #000000"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: #000000; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: ??; mso-font-kerning: 18.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-w#####: bold"><SPAN style="COLOR: #000000; mso-spacerun: yes">       </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: #000000; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ??; mso-hansi-font-family: ??; mso-font-kerning: 18.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-w#####: bold">四，央行购金：代表央行，韩国央行认为：目前金价的波动幅度过大，而且购买黄金仅能满足资产安全需求，即使未来的金价上涨，也很难抛售，明确了央行购金并非大趋势，将不跟从。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: #000000; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: ??; mso-font-kerning: 18.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-w#####: bold"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt 17.95pt; TEXT-INDENT: 15.75pt; mso-para-margin-left: 1.71gd; mso-char-indent-count: 1.5"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: #000000; FONT-FAMILY: ??; mso-font-kerning: 18.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-w#####: bold"><o:p><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #000000"> </SPAN></o:p></SPAN></P><BR><hr style='h#####:50%;color:grey;'>尽一切方法思考明天的事，谨慎的思考，计划及做准备，但是切勿为明天焦虑

帖子：2010年经济分析及黄金走势分析报告

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<STRONG>精彩观点</STRONG> <P></P> <P>　　●11月以来国际黄金价格呈现出加速拉升趋势，同时国内黄金期货价格也连创新高，黄金股的投资价值显现</P> <P></P> <P>　　●美元的持续走弱，使寻求美元以外的资产规避通胀风险成为投资者共同需求，而黄金价值稳定的特点使其成为投资者必然的选择</P> <P></P> <P>　　●从未来走势看，黄金股在顺利突破了长期盘整区域后，正面临着一波快速拉升行情</P> <P></P> <P>　　24日在利空传闻偷袭下国内市场暴跌，昨日市场午盘震荡后快速反弹，大幅收涨。两天之内，市场大浪淘沙，*****两重天。然而黄金板块却逆境中爆走，在24日成为“金坚强”后，25日更是集体暴涨，力挽大盘于崩溃之际。从走势看，黄金股在顺利突破了长期盘整区域后，黄金股的一波快速拉升已然来临。</P><hr style='h#####:50%;color:grey;'>尽一切方法思考明天的事，谨慎的思考，计划及做准备，但是切勿为明天焦虑

帖子：2009-11最后一周继续关注本贴跟踪报道

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　25日，由于美元汇率大跌，纽约商品交易所黄金期货价格继续刷新历史新高并逼近1200美元心理关口。其中，12月合约每盎司大涨21．20美元，收于1187美元的纪录高点。 <P></P> <P>　　受利好的经济数据和美联储会议纪要影响，美元汇率25日大幅下挫至新的15个月低点。24日晚些时候公布的美联储的议息会议纪要暗示，美国基准利率将在未来一段时间内继续保持在接近零的历史性低位。美国劳工部报告称，美国上周首次申请失业救济金的人数下降3．5万人至46．6万人，为去年9月以来的最低水平，而美国商务部称美国10月份的个人支出增加了0．7％，10月份的新房销售则增加了6．2％。三项数据表明，对美国经济复苏至关重要的就业、消费和房地产市场复苏迹象明显。 </P> <P></P> <P>　　受此影响，投资者风险偏好的提升使得美元遭到抛售。当天早些时候，衡量美元兑西方主要货币比价的美元指数一度下跌1％至74．445的15个月新低，兑欧元汇率也跌至接近1．51美元。黄金的保值属性大大增强。 </P> <P></P> <P>　　此外，国际货币基金组织当天宣布向斯里兰卡央行出售了10吨黄金的消息进一步激励期金上涨。 </P><hr style='h#####:50%;color:grey;'>尽一切方法思考明天的事，谨慎的思考，计划及做准备，但是切勿为明天焦虑

帖子：2009-11最后一周继续关注本贴跟踪报道

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<P>今晚不负大家所望都赚了1500以上明天继续关注</P>

帖子：2009-11最后一周继续关注本贴跟踪报道

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现货金今日一度在美元走高的打压下回撤，但幅度不大，之后在美元回吐涨幅的刺激下再<BR>度击穿1170美元。市场对美元进一步走软以及通胀率上升的预期，以及官方<BR>部门将进一步购买黄金的可能性令现货金保持在历史高位附近。 <BR>技术面格局分析： <BR> <BR>日K线图显示，现货金今日收于带上下影线的小阳线。美元今日一度出现反弹，但现货金<BR>却并未大幅下滑，而且在美元回吐涨幅之时再度冲突1170美元，表明市场多头信心强劲，<BR>后市继续上攻依然可期。指标方面，随机指标多次交叉之后向上金叉，利好多头。 <hr style='h#####:50%;color:grey;'>尽一切方法思考明天的事，谨慎的思考，计划及做准备，但是切勿为明天焦虑

帖子：2009-11最后一周继续关注本贴跟踪报道

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2009-11-25日 <BR>基本面利好因素：1全球最大黄金ETF周一公布数据显示增加哦黄金3.964吨至1.121.457吨<BR>                                2俄罗斯央行周一公布数据显示10月份增加储备黄金50万盎司至15.6吨<BR>                                  增幅2.6% <BR><BR>A股市市场昨日午盘后开始大幅跳水主要影响因素<BR>                                                                                      1，11月到上个交易日B股累积上涨26%被大幅炒作相关<BR>                                                                                       政策没有兑现<BR>                                                                                      2，中国银行传言再次融资1000亿<BR>                                                                                      3，中国央行即将召开中央经济会议上提高存准备金率的 预期

帖子：2009-11最后一周继续关注本贴跟踪报道

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<P>各位晚盘分析已经出来大家可以参考<BR>在此再次谢谢大家的鼎力支持！<BR>你的支持就是我的动力<BR>你的盈利就是我的动力<BR>你的微笑就是我的动力<BR>有你们的回帖，有你们一起陪我度过快乐的交易日子，一起成长，</P>

帖子：2009-11最后一周继续关注本贴跟踪报道

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2009-11-24 晚盘分析<BR><IMG h#####=553 src="/FX168MEMBERCENTER/UpFile/200932816013.JPG" width=800 border=0>

帖子：2009-11最后一周继续关注本贴跟踪报道

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<P>谢谢大家的支持，跟大家沟通很愉快</P>

帖子：2009-11最后一周继续关注本贴跟踪报道

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<P>有赚了</P>

帖子：黄金形成下跌力度有多大！！！

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<P><FONT color=#ff0000 size=6>今天是29号提前祝大家节日快乐<BR>今天行情跟上一个交易日没有很大的变化，主要操作策略和上一个交易策略一样，唯独不一样的是我们要考虑今日行情向上冲的力度有多大</FONT></P><hr style='height:50%;color:grey;'>尽一切方法思考明天的事，谨慎的思考，计划及做准备，但是切勿为明天焦虑

帖子：黄金形成下跌力度有多大！！！

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<P><FONT color=#ff0000 size=6>目前就看能不能冲破 1015 1013这道防线，今天操作策略很简单就是等待价位上到1018一线进场做空止损2.5美元利润10-15快</FONT></P> <HR style="h: 50%"> 尽一切方法思考明天的事，谨慎的思考，计划及做准备，但是切勿为明天焦虑<p><font color='#FF6600'><b>该贴最后一次修改时间为：2009-09-25 09:42:27</b></font><hr style='h#####:50%;color:grey;'>尽一切方法思考明天的事，谨慎的思考，计划及做准备，但是切勿为明天焦虑

帖子：行情将陷入盘局本周操作切不可贪！！！

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20
20

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20
20

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青铜四段
100.00%
20
20

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青铜四段
100.00%
20
20

7
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青铜四段
100.00%
20
20

8
投资英雄
青铜四段
100.00%
20
20

9
投资英雄
青铜四段
100.00%
20
20

10
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20
20

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