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  1. <h2 class="newTitle" style="background-color: rgb(249, 249, 249); padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-size: 16px; color: rgb(126, 92, 38); text-align: center; font-family: 黑体; line-height: 38px; "><strong style="font-size: 22px; ">2015年金价有望上试2200美元（每克430元）</strong></h2><div id="bodytext" class="newsContent" style="background-color: rgb(249, 249, 249); padding: 0px; margin: 20px 0px 16px; "><p class="infoImage" style="font-family: 宋体, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 1.75 !important; padding: 0px; margin: 10px 0px; word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; text-align: center; "><a href="http://lyjdwsy.16.greensp.cn/Upload/20140611104601_1725.jpg" title="2015年金价有望上试2200美元（每克430元）" ***="_blank" style="color: rgb(102, 102, 102); text-decoration: none; outline: none; word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; "><img src="http://lyjdwsy.16.greensp.cn/Upload/20140611104601_1725.jpg" alt="2015年金价有望上试2200美元（每克430元）" width="460" height="343" style="border: 3px solid rgb(222, 222, 222); word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; padding: 4px; "></a></p><font face="宋体, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"><span style="font-size: 12px; line-height: 24px;">&nbsp;</span></font><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: 宋体, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 1.75 !important; padding: 0px; margin: 0px; word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; text-indent: 28pt; "><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-size: 14pt; ">2013</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 14pt; ">年，黄金在经历了</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-size: 14pt; ">2011</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 14pt; ">年</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-size: 14pt; ">10</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 14pt; ">月之前的四（</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-size: 14pt; ">Aa</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 14pt; ">）浪下跌，和</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-size: 14pt; ">2011</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 14pt; ">年年末到</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-size: 14pt; ">2012</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 14pt; ">年的四（</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-size: 14pt; ">Ab</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 14pt; ">）浪反弹后，在国际政治、经济、金融等种种因素和主力的刻意打压下，再次经历了一场旷日持久的四（</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-size: 14pt; ">Ac</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 14pt; ">）浪杀跌行情，致使实物黄金投资和看涨黄金的市场多头深度套牢，最知名的就是曾经在现货市场“疯狂扫货”的“中国大妈”。</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-size: 14pt; "></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: 宋体, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 1.75 !important; padding: 0px; margin: 0px; word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; text-indent: 28pt; "><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 14pt; ">那么，经过这场疯狂杀跌之后，黄金市场是否会恢复昔日风采，重拾升势，金价将何去何从</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-size: 14pt; ">?</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 14pt; ">这将成为</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-size: 14pt; ">2014</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 14pt; ">年所有黄金投资人共同关注的话题！</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-size: 14pt; "></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: 宋体, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 1.75 !important; padding: 0px; margin: 0px; word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; text-indent: 28pt; "><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-size: 14pt; "></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: 宋体, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 1.75 !important; padding: 0px; margin: 0px; word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; text-indent: 28pt; "><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 14pt; ">国际黄金自上世纪</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-size: 14pt; ">70</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 14pt; ">年代中期</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-family: 宋体; color: rgb(102, 102, 102); font-size: 15pt; ">布雷顿</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 14pt; ">森林体系解体后，开启了一轮上涨趋势，这轮趋势延续到上世纪</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-size: 14pt; ">80</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 14pt; ">年代初期；金价从</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-size: 14pt; ">103</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 14pt; ">美元上涨到</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-size: 14pt; ">850</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 14pt; ">美元，涨幅</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-size: 14pt; ">747</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 14pt; ">美元，时间</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-size: 14pt; ">5</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 14pt; ">年；这波上涨，从趋势上看，应该为国际金价在摆脱美元束缚后的第一上涨波段，即第一大上升浪。</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-size: 14pt; "></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: 宋体, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 1.75 !important; padding: 0px; margin: 0px; word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; text-indent: 28pt; "><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 14pt; ">之后的第二浪，国际金价虽然沉寂了近</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-size: 14pt; ">20</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 14pt; ">年，但主力并没有放弃黄金，而是在寻找机会。</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-size: 14pt; ">1999</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 14pt; ">年</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-size: 14pt; ">8</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 14pt; ">月</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-size: 14pt; ">26</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 14pt; ">日，国际金价最低达到</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-size: 14pt; ">251</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 14pt; ">美元；</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-size: 14pt; ">2001</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 14pt; ">年</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-size: 14pt; ">2</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 14pt; ">月</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-size: 14pt; ">20</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 14pt; ">日，黄金再次接近前低，到</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-size: 14pt; ">253</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 14pt; ">美元。</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-size: 14pt; "></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: 宋体, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 1.75 !important; padding: 0px; margin: 0px; word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; text-indent: 28pt; "><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-size: 14pt; ">2001</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 14pt; ">年</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-size: 14pt; ">9</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 14pt; ">月</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-size: 14pt; ">11</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 14pt; ">日的美国“</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-size: 14pt; ">9.11</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 14pt; ">”事件，可能是点燃黄金</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-size: 14pt; ">11</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 14pt; ">年上涨行情的导火索！</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-size: 14pt; "></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: 宋体, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 1.75 !important; padding: 0px; margin: 0px; word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; text-indent: 28pt; "><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 14pt; ">“</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-size: 14pt; ">9.11</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 14pt; ">”事件之后，一部分黄金市场主力和先知先觉的场外大鳄，最先开始在现货市场收集实物，并利用期货市场推高金价，</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-size: 14pt; ">2004</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 14pt; ">年</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-size: 14pt; ">5</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 14pt; ">月份之前，在</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-size: 14pt; ">432</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 14pt; ">（</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-size: 14pt; ">84.6</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 14pt; ">元</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-size: 14pt; ">/</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 14pt; ">克）美元之下完成建仓。因此，黄金自</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-size: 14pt; ">2001</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 14pt; ">年开始的</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-size: 14pt; ">11</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 14pt; ">年主升行情，真正的拉升期实际在</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-size: 14pt; ">2004</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 14pt; ">年的下半年；主力持有的现货实物和期货多头持仓成本应该在</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-size: 14pt; ">432</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 14pt; ">美元（</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-size: 14pt; ">84.6</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 14pt; ">元</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-size: 14pt; ">/</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 14pt; ">克）之下。</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-size: 14pt; "></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: 宋体, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 1.75 !important; padding: 0px; margin: 0px; word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; text-indent: 28pt; "><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 14pt; ">这样黄金的第三波段的拉升期正好是</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-size: 14pt; ">8</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 14pt; ">年；而从</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-size: 14pt; ">432</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 14pt; ">美元的主力建仓价到第三浪结束价</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-size: 14pt; ">1920</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 14pt; ">美元（</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-size: 14pt; ">395</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 14pt; ">元</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-size: 14pt; ">/</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 14pt; ">克），涨幅</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-size: 14pt; ">1488</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 14pt; ">美元，这个涨幅正好是上世纪</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-size: 14pt; ">70</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 14pt; ">年代到</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-size: 14pt; ">80</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 14pt; ">年代黄金第一波涨幅的</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-size: 14pt; ">1.99</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 14pt; ">，接近</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-size: 14pt; ">2</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 14pt; ">倍；这些与波浪理论的浪型特征、斐波那契数列、黄金分割率都极为吻合。</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-size: 14pt; "></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: 宋体, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 1.75 !important; padding: 0px; margin: 0px; word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; text-indent: 28pt; "><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-size: 14pt; "></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: 宋体, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 1.75 !important; padding: 0px; margin: 0px; word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; text-indent: 28pt; "><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 14pt; ">从以上分析可以看出，黄金的每一波大的涨势，都出现在整个国际政治格局有大的变化，或有重大经济事件发生的情况下，国际游资和资本大鳄才会伺机而动，有计划的收集筹码，并在收集完筹码后进行快速拉升。而每一次拉升前的筹码收集时间都在</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-size: 14pt; ">3</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 14pt; ">年左右；而且，随着筹码收集成本越高，市场参与者越多，拉升幅度越高，持续时间越长。</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-size: 14pt; "></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: 宋体, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 1.75 !important; padding: 0px; margin: 0px; word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; text-indent: 28pt; "><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 14pt; ">因此，从</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-size: 14pt; ">2011</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 14pt; ">年</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-size: 14pt; ">9</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 14pt; ">月</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-size: 14pt; ">6</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 14pt; ">日，本轮金价自主升浪高点</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-size: 14pt; ">1920</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 14pt; ">美元（</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-size: 14pt; ">395</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 14pt; ">元</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-size: 14pt; ">/</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 14pt; ">克）回落以来，因为全球政治、经济等基本面因素并无特别重大事件发生，那么，国际金价之前的多年连续上涨趋势短期将不会再现；但受金价波浪的惯性影响，和主力筹码的成本限制，黄金的震荡反弹走势仍将持续！</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-size: 14pt; "></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: 宋体, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 1.75 !important; padding: 0px; margin: 0px; word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; text-indent: 28pt; "><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-size: 14pt; "></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: 宋体, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 1.75 !important; padding: 0px; margin: 0px; word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; text-indent: 28pt; "><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-size: 14pt; ">2014</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 14pt; ">年——</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-size: 14pt; ">2015</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 14pt; ">年，国际金价将以震荡向上完成四（</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-size: 14pt; ">B</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 14pt; ">）浪反弹为主，其反弹目标位：四（</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-size: 14pt; ">Ba</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 14pt; ">）浪在</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-size: 14pt; ">1800</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 14pt; ">美元（</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-size: 14pt; ">353</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 14pt; ">元</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-size: 14pt; ">/</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 14pt; ">克）；四（</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-size: 14pt; ">Bc</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 14pt; ">）浪有望触及</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-size: 14pt; ">2200</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 14pt; ">美元（</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-size: 14pt; ">430</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 14pt; ">元</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-size: 14pt; ">/</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 14pt; ">克）。</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-size: 14pt; "></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: 宋体, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 1.75 !important; padding: 0px; margin: 0px; word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; text-indent: 28pt; "><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 14pt; ">那么，</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-size: 14pt; ">2014</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 14pt; ">年和</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-size: 14pt; ">2015</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 14pt; ">年上半年，在进行实物黄金投资和账户交易中，就要以逢低买涨或顺势买涨为主要操作策略，并控制好资金，止损、顺势、轻仓买卖！</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-size: 14pt; "></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: 宋体, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 1.75 !important; padding: 0px; margin: 0px; word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; text-indent: 28pt; "><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-size: 14pt; "></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: 宋体, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 1.75 !important; padding: 0px; margin: 0px; word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; text-indent: 28pt; "><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 14pt; ">这里特别提醒投资者，因为，目前工业化采矿黄金每克开采成本已经达到每克</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-size: 14pt; ">230</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 14pt; ">元（每盎司</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-size: 14pt; ">1174</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 14pt; ">美元），传统开采成本每克高达</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-size: 14pt; ">250</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 14pt; ">元（每盎司</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-size: 14pt; ">1276</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 14pt; ">美元）；而且大多数浅层矿脉已经开采尽，黄金储量日益减少，需求日益增加，加上全球能源、环境问题日益突出，纸币发行泛滥，未来重大政治事件或恶性通胀在所难免。因此，在经过本轮技术性调整后，国际金价仍将向上运行，完成其牛市第五大上升浪，未来，国际金价挑战每盎司</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-size: 14pt; ">2900</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 14pt; ">美元（</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-size: 14pt; ">568</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 14pt; ">元</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-size: 14pt; ">/</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 14pt; ">克）的时间应该不会太远！</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: 宋体, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 1.75 !important; padding: 0px; margin: 0px; word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; text-indent: 28pt; "><span style="font-size: 19px; line-height: 32px; font-family: 宋体; text-indent: 317.3333435058594px; "><br></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: 宋体, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 1.75 !important; padding: 0px; margin: 0px; word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; text-indent: 28pt; "><span style="font-size: 19px; line-height: 32px; font-family: 宋体; text-indent: 317.3333435058594px; ">从以上分析可以看出，2014年到2015年黄金虽然只是反弹行情，但之前的中国大妈们买进的黄金投资产品，仍然有获利或者不错的投资收益，不失为明智之举！</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: 宋体, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 1.75 !important; padding: 0px; margin: 0px; word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; text-indent: 294pt; "><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-size: 14pt; ">2014</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 14pt; ">年</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-size: 14pt; ">2</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 14pt; ">月</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-size: 14pt; ">22</span><span style="word-break: break-all; word-wrap: break-word; line-height: 1.75 !important; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 14pt; ">日</span></p></div><br class="Apple-interchange-newline"><p><font color='#FF6600'><b>该贴最后一次修改时间为：2014-06-26 13:05:02</b></font>

    帖子：2015年金价有望上试2200美元（每克430元）

    最后回复：未填写 删除

  2. &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<FONT face=仿宋_GB2312 color=#ff0000 size=5><STRONG>&nbsp;&nbsp; 美国盘黄金如期回落，短空平仓参考1123/1121美圆；涨单参考1123/1117美圆布局。趋势上看，只要金价守住1121/1117美圆，后市震荡修复指标后仍将向上运行！</STRONG></FONT><hr style='height:50%;color:grey;'>

    帖子：周三冲高回落，参考1121——1137买卖

    最后回复：未填写 删除

  3. 周线乌云盖顶，后市逢高沽空！

    帖子：金价仍将大幅下行，今日参考957/961美圆做空；936/931/925美圆平仓或短线买涨！

    最后回复：未填写 删除

  4. 周线乌云盖顶，后市逢高沽空！

    帖子：金价仍将大幅下行，今日参考957/961美圆做空；936/931/925美圆平仓或短线买涨！

    最后回复：未填写 删除

  5. 下周会有短暂反弹！

    帖子：黄金会有短暂反弹出现，今日参考941/937—965/971美圆低买高卖！

    最后回复：未填写 删除

  6. 下周会有短暂反弹！

    帖子：黄金会有短暂反弹出现，今日参考941/937—965/971美圆低买高卖！

    最后回复：未填写 删除

  7. <P><FONT face=幼圆 color=#ff1493 size=5><STRONG>美国盘参考：947/953---936/926美圆高沽低渣！<BR></STRONG></FONT></P><hr style='height:50%;color:grey;'>

    帖子：金价仍将大幅下行，今日参考957/961美圆做空；936/931/925美圆平仓或短线买涨！

    最后回复：未填写 删除

  8. <P><FONT face=幼圆 color=#ff1493 size=5><STRONG>美国盘参考：947/953---936/926美圆高沽低渣！<BR></STRONG></FONT></P><hr style='height:50%;color:grey;'>

    帖子：金价仍将大幅下行，今日参考957/961美圆做空；936/931/925美圆平仓或短线买涨！

    最后回复：未填写 删除

  9. !

    帖子：金价仍将大幅下行，今日参考957/961美圆做空；936/931/925美圆平仓或短线买涨！

    最后回复：未填写 删除

  10. !

    帖子：金价仍将大幅下行，今日参考957/961美圆做空；936/931/925美圆平仓或短线买涨！

    最后回复：未填写 删除

  11. <P><FONT face=宋体 color=#ff0000 size=5>晚盘建议可即时索取</FONT></P>

    帖子：金价仍将大幅下行，今日参考957/961美圆做空；936/931/925美圆平仓或短线买涨！

    最后回复：未填写 删除

  12. <P><FONT face=宋体 color=#ff0000 size=5>晚盘建议可即时索取</FONT></P>

    帖子：金价仍将大幅下行，今日参考957/961美圆做空；936/931/925美圆平仓或短线买涨！

    最后回复：未填写 删除

  13. <DIV class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=center><B><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 16pt; FONT-FAMILY: 仿宋_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">黄金短线面临震荡，中长期趋势依然看涨</SPAN></B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 16pt; FONT-FAMILY: 仿宋_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial"><?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o:p></o:p></SPAN></DIV> <DIV class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 18pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</SPAN></B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</SPAN></SPAN><B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 18pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </SPAN></SPAN></B><B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">&nbsp;&nbsp;</SPAN></B><B><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 仿宋_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">黄金投资分析师</SPAN></B><B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 仿宋_GB2312">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</SPAN></B><B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 仿宋_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial"> </SPAN></B><B><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 仿宋_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">贾会钦</SPAN></B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></DIV> <DIV class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #bf00bf; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</SPAN></B><B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 仿宋_GB2312">&nbsp;&nbsp;</SPAN></B></DIV> <DIV class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 仿宋_GB2312">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</SPAN></B><B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt; FONT-FAMILY: 仿宋_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial"> </SPAN></B><B><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt; FONT-FAMILY: 仿宋_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">　黄金自<SPAN lang=EN-US>2001</SPAN>年<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>月份的低点<SPAN lang=EN-US>253</SPAN>美圆起涨，到<SPAN lang=EN-US>2008</SPAN>年<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月13日的高点1000美圆，已连续上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>7</SPAN>年，上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>747</SPAN>美圆，涨幅接近3倍。<SPAN lang=EN-US>7</SPAN>年来无论黄金基金、理智型投资者或前期屯金者都赚的钵满盆满。</SPAN></B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt; FONT-FAMILY: 仿宋_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></DIV> <DIV class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 仿宋_GB2312">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</SPAN></B><B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt; FONT-FAMILY: 仿宋_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial"> </SPAN></B><B><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt; FONT-FAMILY: 仿宋_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">　从国际金价最近<SPAN lang=EN-US>7</SPAN>年的连续走势看，黄金的本轮牛市，前期缓步上行；<SPAN lang=EN-US>2005</SPAN>年下半年加速上涨；<SPAN lang=EN-US>2006</SPAN>年<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>月至<SPAN lang=EN-US>2007</SPAN>年<SPAN lang=EN-US>8</SPAN>月震荡蓄势；<SPAN lang=EN-US>2007</SPAN>年<SPAN lang=EN-US>8</SPAN>月之后再续牛途；<SPAN lang=EN-US>2008</SPAN>年元月<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>日突破上世纪<SPAN lang=EN-US>80</SPAN>年代创下的高点<SPAN lang=EN-US>850</SPAN>美圆后，受原油&#8220;破百&#8221;和美圆弱势提振，更是一路过关斩碍，钪锵上扬，直至<SPAN lang=EN-US>2008</SPAN>年<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月13日创出<SPAN lang=EN-US>28</SPAN>年来的历史新高1000美圆。</SPAN></B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt; FONT-FAMILY: 仿宋_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></DIV> <DIV class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 仿宋_GB2312">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</SPAN></B><B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt; FONT-FAMILY: 仿宋_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial"> </SPAN></B><B><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt; FONT-FAMILY: 仿宋_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">　目前（<SPAN lang=EN-US>2008</SPAN>年<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月13日），国际黄金现货价格位于<SPAN lang=EN-US>995</SPAN>美圆。</SPAN></B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt; FONT-FAMILY: 仿宋_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></DIV> <DIV class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 仿宋_GB2312">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</SPAN></B><B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt; FONT-FAMILY: 仿宋_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial"> </SPAN></B><B><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt; FONT-FAMILY: 仿宋_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">　技术上看，金价日线随机指标<SPAN lang=EN-US>KDJ</SPAN>背离，周线随机指标在<SPAN lang=EN-US>80</SPAN>之上游走，提示短线超买；虽然日线和周线趋向指标<SPAN lang=EN-US>MACD</SPAN>短期支持金价上行，但红柱缩短，力度趋弱；再结合上周（<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>日<SPAN lang=EN-US>-8</SPAN>日）周<SPAN lang=EN-US>K</SPAN>线的高位中继形&#8220;十字星&#8221;和波浪的浪形特征看：黄金短线进入警戒区域，近期有可能出现幅度比较大的震荡行情；但短线震荡调整不会改变黄金的中长期上涨趋势；未来，经过短线震荡调整后，黄金价格将伴随全球黄金供求关系和国际政治、经济、金融、投资形势变化，真正进入主升阶段，展开更凌厉的攻势，甚至有望突破<SPAN lang=EN-US>2200</SPAN>美圆！</SPAN></B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt; FONT-FAMILY: 仿宋_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></DIV> <DIV class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 仿宋_GB2312">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</SPAN></B><B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt; FONT-FAMILY: 仿宋_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial"> </SPAN></B><B><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt; FONT-FAMILY: 仿宋_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">　下面从波浪理论（技术面）和超宏观因素联动方面（基本面）对黄金的近期走势和未来发展做一分析。</SPAN></B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt; FONT-FAMILY: 仿宋_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></DIV> <DIV class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 仿宋_GB2312">&nbsp;</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt; FONT-FAMILY: 仿宋_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></DIV> <DIV class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 34.45pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-char-indent-count: 2.45" align=left><B><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt; FONT-FAMILY: 仿宋_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">一、波浪理论提示，金价目前处于警戒区域，短线面临震荡，但中长期趋势依然看好，未来有望测试<SPAN lang=EN-US>2200</SPAN>美圆（技术面）。</SPAN></B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt; FONT-FAMILY: 仿宋_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></DIV> <DIV class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 仿宋_GB2312">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</SPAN></B><B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt; FONT-FAMILY: 仿宋_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial"> </SPAN></B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt; FONT-FAMILY: 仿宋_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></DIV> <DIV class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 仿宋_GB2312">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</SPAN></B><B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt; FONT-FAMILY: 仿宋_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial"> </SPAN></B><B><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt; FONT-FAMILY: 仿宋_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">　艾略特先生在对自然界潮汐变化的长期观察后发现了波浪理论，并把该理论运用到投资领域，做为判别市场走势和选择入市时机的依据。</SPAN></B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt; FONT-FAMILY: 仿宋_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></DIV> <DIV class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 仿宋_GB2312">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</SPAN></B><B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt; FONT-FAMILY: 仿宋_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial"> </SPAN></B><B><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt; FONT-FAMILY: 仿宋_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">　波浪理论将每一个趋势的发展划分成波幅基本相同的<SPAN lang=EN-US>8</SPAN>个波段，其中，<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>、<SPAN lang=EN-US>4</SPAN>、<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>浪是推动浪，<SPAN lang=EN-US>a</SPAN>、<SPAN lang=EN-US>b</SPAN>、<SPAN lang=EN-US>c</SPAN>浪是修正浪；无论上升还是下降趋势，推动浪之后都要进入<SPAN lang=EN-US>a</SPAN>、<SPAN lang=EN-US>b</SPAN>、<SPAN lang=EN-US>c</SPAN>浪修正。同时艾略特还把波浪理论定义为&#8220;大自然的法则&#8221;，对波浪理论的浪形特征进行了阐述：第一浪是行情的酝酿、发动阶段，多为缓步上升形态；第二浪多为简单的&#8220;之&#8221;字形或上升三角形形态；第三浪是趋势中的主升浪，其浪形特征为连续跳空不回补，角度陡、力度大，经常延长，其升幅通常是第一浪的<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.618</SPAN>、<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>倍或更多；而第四浪，因为第一浪和第三浪主力积累了大量的获利筹码，该浪的杀伤力主要集中在<SPAN lang=EN-US>a</SPAN>浪，因大量平仓盘作用，<SPAN lang=EN-US>a</SPAN>浪往往一步到位，而<SPAN lang=EN-US>c</SPAN>浪则因为随后的第五浪还要创出新高，跌幅很小，使第四浪形成对称三角形形态；第五浪主力以拉高出货为主，不需要太多筹码就可以把行情做足，因此，常常出现量价背离，艾略特把这一浪定义为&#8220;短线客的天堂&#8221;；（通常第五浪延长的情况下，会形成&#8220;天九波&#8221;&#8212;这种情况经常出现在一个强势市场中；）而对于第五浪延长的情况，艾略特对其后市回撤目标的阐述是能够回到延长浪的起涨点附近。</SPAN></B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt; FONT-FAMILY: 仿宋_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></DIV> <DIV class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 仿宋_GB2312">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</SPAN></B><B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt; FONT-FAMILY: 仿宋_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial"> </SPAN></B><B><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt; FONT-FAMILY: 仿宋_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">　根据艾略特波浪理论的浪形特征，我们把<SPAN lang=EN-US>2001</SPAN>年来的国际黄金价格走势做一浪形划分：第一浪<SPAN lang=EN-US>253</SPAN>&#8212;<SPAN lang=EN-US>430</SPAN>美圆，上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>177</SPAN>美圆，为缓步上升形态；第二浪<SPAN lang=EN-US>430/432</SPAN>&#8212;<SPAN lang=EN-US>371</SPAN>美圆、<SPAN lang=EN-US>371</SPAN>&#8212;<SPAN lang=EN-US>456</SPAN>&#8212;<SPAN lang=EN-US>412</SPAN>美圆，由简单的&#8220;之&#8221;字形调整，演化为复杂的上升三角形调整，调整时间<SPAN lang=EN-US>21</SPAN>个月，时间长；第三浪<SPAN lang=EN-US>371</SPAN>&#8212;<SPAN lang=EN-US>730</SPAN>美圆，上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>359</SPAN>美圆，基本是第一浪的<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>倍（<SPAN lang=EN-US>177X2</SPAN>）；<SPAN lang=EN-US>730</SPAN>&#8212;<SPAN lang=EN-US>541</SPAN>、<SPAN lang=EN-US>541</SPAN>&#8212;<SPAN lang=EN-US>676</SPAN>、<SPAN lang=EN-US>676</SPAN>&#8212;<SPAN lang=EN-US>559</SPAN>、<SPAN lang=EN-US>559</SPAN>&#8212;<SPAN lang=EN-US>689/693</SPAN>、<SPAN lang=EN-US>689/693</SPAN>&#8212;<SPAN lang=EN-US>641</SPAN>美圆形成一个对称三角形，调整时间为<SPAN lang=EN-US>17</SPAN>个月，是明显的第四浪，时间与第二浪互换（二浪时间长，四浪时间短）；第五浪从<SPAN lang=EN-US>559</SPAN>美圆起涨，其理论升幅<SPAN lang=EN-US>354</SPAN>美圆（<SPAN lang=EN-US>177X2</SPAN>），目标在<SPAN lang=EN-US>913</SPAN>美圆，但因为延长，其目标应为<SPAN lang=EN-US>559+177X2.382=980</SPAN>美圆或<SPAN lang=EN-US>559+177X2.618=1022</SPAN>美圆。</SPAN></B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt; FONT-FAMILY: 仿宋_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></DIV> <DIV class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 仿宋_GB2312">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</SPAN></B><B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt; FONT-FAMILY: 仿宋_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial"> </SPAN></B><B><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt; FONT-FAMILY: 仿宋_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">　从国际黄金的当前走势中，我们看到黄金目前正运行于第<SPAN lang=EN-US>I</SPAN>大上升浪的、第五大推动浪中的、第（<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>）小延长浪中。浪形看该第（<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>）延长浪近似于衰竭形第（<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>）浪。</SPAN></B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt; FONT-FAMILY: 仿宋_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></DIV> <DIV class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 仿宋_GB2312">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</SPAN></B><B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt; FONT-FAMILY: 仿宋_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial"> </SPAN></B><B><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt; FONT-FAMILY: 仿宋_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">　那么，按照波浪理论的基本法则&#8220;无论上升还是下降趋势，推动浪之后都要进入<SPAN lang=EN-US>a</SPAN>、<SPAN lang=EN-US>b</SPAN>、<SPAN lang=EN-US>c</SPAN>浪修正&#8221;，结合以上我们对黄金的浪形分析和技术指标判断，黄金短期内应该会出现一个幅度比较大的震荡，震荡后或转入第<SPAN lang=EN-US>II</SPAN>大浪调整或继续延续牛市上升行情。</SPAN></B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt; FONT-FAMILY: 仿宋_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></DIV> <DIV class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 仿宋_GB2312">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</SPAN></B><B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt; FONT-FAMILY: 仿宋_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial"> </SPAN></B><B><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt; FONT-FAMILY: 仿宋_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">　对于后市的震荡幅度，我们仍可以按波浪理论的法则去研判：&#8220;而对于第五浪延长的情况，艾略特对其后市回撤目标的阐述是能够回到延长浪的起涨点附近&#8221;，即<SPAN lang=EN-US>785</SPAN>美圆附近。就是说国际金价在后市的震荡调整中有可能见到<SPAN lang=EN-US>850</SPAN>&#8212;<SPAN lang=EN-US>785</SPAN>美圆的位置（极限位置在641美圆）。</SPAN></B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt; FONT-FAMILY: 仿宋_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></DIV> <DIV class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 仿宋_GB2312">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</SPAN></B><B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt; FONT-FAMILY: 仿宋_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial"> </SPAN></B><B><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt; FONT-FAMILY: 仿宋_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">　根据这一判断，在近期的投资中就要注意短线风险，无论买卖现货黄金、上海期货交易所期货黄金，或在上海黄金交易所的<SPAN lang=EN-US>T+D</SPAN>操作中做多、做空，都要提前做好止赢、止损计划，谨慎操作，不追涨、不杀跌，以免追涨杀跌人为造成大的损失；而对于习惯于中长线投资，或波段操作的投资者，也可以逐步减仓或退出观望，耐心等待下一个买点的出现！</SPAN></B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt; FONT-FAMILY: 仿宋_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></DIV> <DIV class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><B><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt; FONT-FAMILY: 仿宋_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 波浪理论侧重于风险和利润的评估，利用波浪理论判别黄金的走势、选择买卖价位和入市时机，多数情况下结合黄金分割和百分比回撤会更精确些。但最基本的要求，还要遵循艾略特先生对波浪的定义，按趋势发展的方向，划分清楚浪形，弄清各浪的特征；在浪形和浪形特征辨明后，知道投资品种、投资对象的价格处在市场的那个阶段、哪个水平，自己处在哪种地位，认真加以评估后，再制订适合自己的入市策略，并进行买卖。</SPAN></B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt; FONT-FAMILY: 仿宋_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></DIV> <DIV class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><SPAN><FONT face=Arial>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </FONT><STRONG>波浪理论比较复杂，并且存在很多局限性，对于黄金的中长期走势，我们只能对其进行一个简单的尝试性推断：因为，我们已经把<SPAN lang=EN-US>2001</SPAN>年来的黄金的上涨行情做为一个较大级别的趋势来看待，那么，按照波浪理论的基本法则和趋势运行的方向，我们可以这样设想，假如后市短线震荡后转入长期上涨趋势中的第<SPAN lang=EN-US>II</SPAN>大浪调整，并且调整后只要不跌破<SPAN lang=EN-US>850&#8212;</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US>785</SPAN>美圆，（或极限位置<SPAN lang=EN-US>640</SPAN>美圆）；则后市一但企稳发动行情，理论上就应视为波浪理论所说的主升浪，即黄金牛市的第<SPAN lang=EN-US>III</SPAN>大上升浪。这一浪多为上攻行情，涨势凌厉，获利空间巨大。</STRONG></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt; FONT-FAMILY: 仿宋_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></DIV> <DIV class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 仿宋_GB2312">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</SPAN></B><B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt; FONT-FAMILY: 仿宋_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial"> </SPAN></B><B><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt; FONT-FAMILY: 仿宋_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">　</SPAN></B><B><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt; FONT-FAMILY: 仿宋_GB2312; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">按照波浪理论的这种推断，我们有理由这样认为，近期黄金短线震荡后，无论转入第<SPAN lang=EN-US>II</SPAN>浪调整，或震荡后继续上行，后市都将会有更大级别的上涨行情出现，未来甚至有可能冲击<SPAN lang=EN-US>2200</SPAN>美圆或更高目标！__QQ450279207__13937985087</SPAN></B></DIV>

    帖子：谈谈我个人对2008年黄金中线的趋势以及大概的中线投资者买入黄金的价位(今天是2008年5月14日)

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  14. <DIV><FONT color=#b32bd5 size=4>趋势分析：</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT color=#b32bd5 size=4>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;国际金价有可能结束延续7年的上涨行情，进入第II浪调整</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT color=#b32bd5 size=4>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&#8212;&#8212;调整区间914&#8212;777&#8212;720&#8212;641美圆</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT color=#b32bd5 size=4>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 国际金价从2001年的251美圆起涨，到2008年元月14日/15日的914美圆，已连续上行7年，上涨663美圆，涨幅达261%。目前国际金价已脱离914美圆高点，位于880/890美圆附近。周K线和月K线看，国际金价进入敏感区域；波浪理论提示：国际金价有结束7年升势，进入大II浪调整的可能，调整目标分别在777&#8212;720&#8212;641美圆。</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT color=#b32bd5 size=4>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 下面从波浪理论角度对2001年来的国际金价运行趋势做一分析，供投资者参考：</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT color=#b32bd5 size=4>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 艾略特波浪理论根据自然界潮汐变化，将每一个趋势的发展划分成波幅基本相同的8个波段，其中，1、2、3、4、5浪是推动浪，a、b、c浪是修正浪；无论上升还是下降趋势，推动浪之后都要进入a、b、c浪修正。同时艾略特还把波浪理论定义为&#8220;大自然的法则&#8221;，对波浪理论的浪形特征进行了阐述：第一浪是行情的酝酿、发动阶段，多为缓步上升形态；第二浪多为简单的&#8220;之&#8221;字形或上升三角形形态；第三浪是趋势中的主升浪，其浪形特征为连续跳空不回补，角度陡、力度大，经常延长，其升幅通常是第一浪的1.618或2倍；而第四浪，因为第一浪和第三浪主力积累了大量的获利筹码，该浪的杀伤力主要集中在a浪，因大量平仓盘作用，a浪往往一步到位，而c浪则因为随后的第五浪还要创出新高，跌幅很小，使第四浪形成对称三角形形态；第五浪主力以出货为主，不需要太多筹码就可以把行情做足，因此，常常出现量价背离，艾略特把这一浪定义为&#8220;短线客的天堂&#8221;。</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT color=#b32bd5 size=4>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 根据艾略特波浪理论的浪形特征，我们把2001年来的国际金价走势做一浪形划分：第一浪251&#8212;430美圆，上涨179美圆，为缓步上升形态；第二浪430/432&#8212;371美圆、371&#8212;456&#8212;412美圆，由简单的&#8220;之&#8221;字形调整，演化为复杂的上升三角形调整，调整时间17个月；第三浪371&#8212;730美圆，上涨359美圆，是第一浪的2倍（179X2）；730&#8212;541、541&#8212;676、676&#8212;559美圆形成一个对称三角形，调整时间同样也为17个月，是明显的第四浪；第五浪从559美圆起涨，其理论升幅289美圆（179X1.618），目标在848美圆，但因为第五浪延长，其目标应为559+179X2=917美圆。</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT color=#b32bd5 size=4>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 而对于第五浪延长的情况，艾略特对其后市回撤目标的阐述是能够回到延长浪的起涨点附近，即641美圆；这个目标与251&#8212;914美圆百分比回撤的0.382位663美圆基本吻合。</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT color=#b32bd5 size=4>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 因此，国际金价一但在914美圆结束牛市第I大上升浪，第II浪最有可能的调整目标在720&#8212;660美圆，极限位在641美圆。</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT color=#b32bd5 size=4>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 从以上分析可以看出：国际金价在长期牛市格局不变的情况下，中短期调整很有可能在914美圆附近出现，调整幅度在200&#8212;280美圆左右，时间可能持续34个月，接近三年。</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT color=#b32bd5 size=4></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV> <DIV><FONT color=#b32bd5 size=4>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 这一点，从最近三个月美圆的月线图，也可以反向验证：美圆月K线自2007年11月、12月形成&#8220;早晨之星&#8221;后，始终在前期低点之上运行，月线推断很有可能在2008年元月份后出现较大的反弹或反转行情，按对称点分析其反弹高度有望达到87/92点。而中东局势在布什对中东几国的访问中也有缓和迹象，其对以色列态度的改变，更是中东局势向好的信号。这些也对金价的调整形成指引。</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT color=#b32bd5 size=4></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV> <DIV><FONT color=#b32bd5 size=4>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 但对于国际金价的长期走势来说，本次即使调整也仅是牛市的第II浪调整，调整后只要不跌破640美圆，或极限位550美圆，未来仍将要发动更大级别的上升浪，冲击2000美圆或更高目标！</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT color=#b32bd5 size=4></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV> <DIV><FONT color=#b32bd5 size=4>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 贾会钦</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT color=#b32bd5 size=4>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 电话：10000000000</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT color=#b32bd5 size=4>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; QQ：400000000</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT color=#b32bd5 size=4>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 网址：</FONT><A href="http://www.00000.com/"><FONT color=#b32bd5 size=4>www.00000.com</FONT></A>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 以上也可参考！</DIV>

    帖子：竹君黄金评论1.21

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  15. <P>黄金跌破10日线，有走淡迹象。请投资者注意按浪形操作，不要象730一样被套在大五浪顶点。今日操作883&#8212;871/865美圆，高沽低渣，多单以短线为宜！贾会钦 10000000000 QQ：400000000</P>

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